TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 14, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$163,291
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$167,159

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,291 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 416 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6c6e…8ca3backed No0c12,224$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c28…fc1abacked No0c10,068$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-40.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x367a…d7c0backed No1c7,307$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.221540%6 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d85…97e9backed No24c5,482$1,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,326.85728.1%16 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb60d…bfb5backed No20c3,716$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.88944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+45.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes77c3,191$2,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.7631344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes70c3,133$2,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.9536750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes68c3,007$2,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963.8723839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed No77c1,688$1,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,303.413950.4%70 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9078…26afbacked Yes64c1,378$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.3810533.3%35 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb701…59f7backed No35c1,135$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf65b…3588backed No9c1,127$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66f5…d943backed No2c1,056$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cc5…aeb8backed No53c938$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.141233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-40.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes27c929.54$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6757226.4%19 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc140…ac80backed No70c877.83$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.181361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes36c833.63$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.798243.9%36 W · 46 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb03b…6ca1backed Yes69c786.37$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.991070%7 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+17.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd08…2c93backed Yes55c751.68$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.358867%59 W · 29 L+15.2wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+72%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x5664…f163backed Yes70c739.14$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.244355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb25…5b6bbacked Yes47c682$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.462142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb73e…975ebacked Yes47c637$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.611154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ccb…6c69backed No53c637$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.611643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…9d23backed No75c630.71$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.8850%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6560…e164backed Yes70c488.57$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.398452.4%44 W · 40 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes74c475.63$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.6313138.9%51 W · 80 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x906e…bc2bbacked Yes22c450.46$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.46650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+225.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcf1…e06bbacked No68c440.96$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-42.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb74c…b149backed No79c436.81$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.982650%13 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No23c403$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.14928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No45c387.85$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1757741.6%32 W · 45 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7028…e0e9backed No29c368.58$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.0114854.1%80 W · 68 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bdf…5113backed Yes51c360$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1751100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c93…e189backed Yes51c360$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1751100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e8f…3b96backed No49c360$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf96…e6e6backed Yes51c360$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1751100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc830…6453backed Yes51c360$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1751100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd28…82ebbacked Yes51c360$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1751100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6390…2da9backed No49c360$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d38…8fd5backed No49c360$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a5…5075backed No49c360$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3adf…30e6backed No49c360$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes36c356.84$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.276825%17 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x540a…64c9backed No37c355.31$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.335127.5%14 W · 37 L-8.8wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-13.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x0b3d…cbedbacked Yes51c350$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+110.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfadc…4875backed Yes51c350$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4c2…4230backed Yes51c350$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x503b…2cadbacked No49c350$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cc7…c452backed No49c350$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36d0…6156backed Yes51c350$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d31…24e3backed Yes51c350$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf61…36e2backed No49c350$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c83…3b34backed No49c350$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9bd…47cbbacked No49c350$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f4c…de22backed No23c349.99$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.64131.7%13 W · 28 L-8.6wins-0.21per pick53cpaid-44.4%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xb1f7…6764backed Yes70c329.99$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick63cpaid+46%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x760a…c0cbbacked No61c327.83$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No30c322.66$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4189617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked No77c320$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.88248.8%40 W · 42 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+32.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No23c318$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.230649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0x4647…23aebacked Yes49c310.68$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.583641.7%15 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x152f…c7e7backed Yes34c297.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.3110313.6%14 W · 89 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bfe…125fbacked No51c295$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3428…1c71backed No51c295$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3176…48a7backed Yes49c295$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfba0…419cbacked Yes49c295$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1597…ad7dbacked Yes49c295$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d2e…4e4abacked Yes49c295$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb334…289dbacked Yes49c295$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1686…9d13backed No51c295$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x958c…ec3fbacked No51c295$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47ee…4104backed No51c295$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes69c287.21$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.2125339.5%100 W · 153 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb065…7434backed Yes51c285$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7852…089ebacked Yes51c285$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…1530backed Yes51c285$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3139…7ff3backed No49c285$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…ce27backed No49c285$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c86…d0f9backed Yes51c285$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ed2…4925backed Yes51c285$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…b2cebacked No49c285$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9684…ffaabacked No49c285$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3231…e176backed No49c285$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfa6…4eb6backed No25c281.86$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50e8…ac57backed Yes38c257$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.342759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x16a0…72f1backed No62c257$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.341540%6 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed Yes47c256$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.682835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No39c255.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5550130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd67e…3b73backed Yes49c225$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43ce…e29dbacked Yes49c225$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7153…8ff9backed Yes48c225$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8614…d560backed Yes48c225$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9e0…4bc5backed Yes48c225$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94fa…6dbebacked Yes49c225$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff20…0cd8backed Yes49c225$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…939cbacked Yes49c225$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1d8…7c5abacked Yes49c225$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9179…9628backed Yes49c225$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf629…6e8dbacked Yes49c225$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b2d…5ef3backed Yes49c225$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.