Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 3, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde9172bef76ec260b2fffef081f5dd05841fdf79a152044ff40579ffdfd8783c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf072…cee7backed Yes | 2c | 2,130$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,677$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed Yes | 32c | 1,428$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.96 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.5wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 22c | 1,371$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.83 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,253$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,228$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.43 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…9ca7backed Yes | 45c | 1,129$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…0c32backed Yes | 10c | 1,048$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.69 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 20c | 1,046$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.42 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 17c | 921.42$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.5 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked No | 55c | 884$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.8 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +74%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 883.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed No | 55c | 870$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.5 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed No | 54c | 844$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.24 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 1c | 833.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 805.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd70e…0ac1backed No | 55c | 785$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 4c | 705.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed No | 55c | 701$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.45 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 45c | 701$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.45 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66e8…0838backed Yes | 3c | 697.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cc…70babacked No | 69c | 679.31$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…6beabacked No | 68c | 674$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.68 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…2c7fbacked Yes | 20c | 666$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb73e…975ebacked Yes | 46c | 631$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c5…ada8backed Yes | 9c | 621.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed Yes | 45c | 612$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.4 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c90…17fbbacked Yes | 45c | 546$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e8…6f21backed Yes | 45c | 545$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked Yes | 32c | 499$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.68 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…3ceabacked No | 68c | 499$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcabd…3764backed Yes | 45c | 496$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.2 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea90…0f8fbacked No | 68c | 494$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.08 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…aeb8backed Yes | 45c | 475$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.75 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6034…b5fdbacked No | 55c | 471$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…735dbacked Yes | 45c | 450$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…dabbbacked No | 66c | 439.77$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d3…6781backed No | 66c | 439.68$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.68 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed Yes | 9c | 435.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…e59abacked No | 55c | 384$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 77c | 368.26$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.88 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b7…d913backed No | 55c | 355$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…e7f9backed Yes | 44c | 350.58$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.88 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…0574backed Yes | 7c | 307.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…5379backed No | 67c | 302.07$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.07 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked Yes | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…6622backed Yes | 45c | 289$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.05 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7c…a11bbacked No | 55c | 279$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 278.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed No | 55c | 272$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.4 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd44…1837backed No | 68c | 260$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…42efbacked Yes | 45c | 260$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6177…c22abacked Yes | 45c | 260$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2e…4f7bbacked Yes | 5c | 248.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a6f0backed No | 55c | 238$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 8c | 234.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f53…4bccbacked No | 74c | 202.26$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed Yes | 27c | 200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed No | 55c | 187$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 31c | 186.66$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a7…4d86backed No | 55c | 183$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.35 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…f8fbbacked No | 55c | 181$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…4815backed No | 55c | 176$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0f…e9e9backed Yes | 13c | 165.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 12c | 164.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a92…d2e9backed Yes | 45c | 161$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 13c | 160.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 25c | 157.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d68…1474backed No | 79c | 157.36$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca0…038ebacked No | 65c | 153.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.48 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d8…e846backed No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…ddd6backed No | 55c | 140$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8440…a714backed Yes | 33c | 130$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9454…7f72backed Yes | 35c | 114.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e47…db27backed Yes | 45c | 108$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed No | 55c | 105$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…f77ebacked No | 64c | 104.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29e9…fec1backed Yes | 24c | 103.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafa0…e2b0backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…63f7backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3368…f496backed No | 63c | 95.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 77c | 84.11$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9150…26f4backed Yes | 38c | 79.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 77.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9b…2d24backed Yes | 29c | 69.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +94%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…4e58backed Yes | 46c | 67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4586…158cbacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed Yes | 21c | 59.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d9…1baabacked No | 66c | 59.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.41per pick | 52cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9f4ebacked No | 67c | 59.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa90a…da95backed Yes | 33c | 58.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 20c | 58.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 124 | 33.1%41 W · 83 L | -12.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96f2…c836backed Yes | 39c | 51.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 3, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 17, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 5, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.