TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 3, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$78,845
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$77,038

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,845 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf072…cee7backed Yes2c2,130$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.852927.6%8 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c1,677$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.157135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f5…b750backed Yes32c1,428$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.961717.6%3 W · 14 L-4.5wins-0.27per pick44cpaid-60.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe937…d46abacked Yes22c1,371$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.837140.8%29 W · 42 L+7.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+112.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes2c1,253$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.224928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes9c1,228$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.436825%17 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9279…9ca7backed Yes45c1,129$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.05944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+43.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24e4…0c32backed Yes10c1,048$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.692045%9 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed Yes20c1,046$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.427938%30 W · 49 L+0.3wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes17c921.42$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.57226.4%19 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1dd8…757abacked No55c884$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.81566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.6wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+74%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes2c883.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.582384.6%11 W · 227 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8717…f8a1backed No55c870$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.51968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+27.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xee9e…efb7backed No54c844$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.241822.2%4 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-47.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0218…52c0backed Yes1c833.18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.68180%0 W · 18 L-3.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes3c805.24$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.661442.8%4 W · 140 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd70e…0ac1backed No55c785$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.25966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+55.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes4c705.42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.321477.5%11 W · 136 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aca…cad6backed No55c701$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.452142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed Yes45c701$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.453545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66e8…0838backed Yes3c697.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204124.4%10 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-52.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0cc…70babacked No69c679.31$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.74728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-42.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0257…6beabacked No68c674$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.681154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+19.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1424…2c7fbacked Yes20c666$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.25731.6%18 W · 39 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb73e…975ebacked Yes46c631$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.261154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96c5…ada8backed Yes9c621.39$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.621533.3%5 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc336…9f48backed Yes45c612$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.42556%14 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+53.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes3c600$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.92476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c90…17fbbacked Yes45c546$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.7728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid+15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95e8…6f21backed Yes45c545$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.25933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bb6…6d5fbacked Yes32c499$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.681540%6 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd001…3ceabacked No68c499$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.68944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcabd…3764backed Yes45c496$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.21275%9 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+108.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xea90…0f8fbacked No68c494$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.081330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-38.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0cc5…aeb8backed Yes45c475$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.751233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-40.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6034…b5fdbacked No55c471$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.95933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x805a…735dbacked Yes45c450$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.51435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb875…dabbbacked No66c439.77$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.79742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9d3…6781backed No66c439.68$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.682552%13 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed Yes9c435.81$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8111329.2%33 W · 80 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59ad…e59abacked No55c384$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.81957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+58.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9934…6078backed No77c368.26$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.887548%36 W · 39 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1b7…d913backed No55c355$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.75666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3e4…e7f9backed Yes44c350.58$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.883231.3%10 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick20cpaid+71.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb720…0574backed Yes7c307.86$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.55224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-90.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8217…5379backed No67c302.07$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.071050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes8c300$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8838247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4b72…cd8ebacked Yes45c300$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1352552%13 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b69…6622backed Yes45c289$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.051136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick47cpaid+31.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d7c…a11bbacked No55c279$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.551050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes15c278.7$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4289617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf8ae…bb88backed No55c272$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.42544%11 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd44…1837backed No68c260$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.21233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick44cpaid+17.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2756…42efbacked Yes45c260$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1171650%8 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6177…c22abacked Yes45c260$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11790%0 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0e2e…4f7bbacked Yes5c248.79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe36c…a6f0backed No55c238$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.11656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+20.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes8c234.9$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7715951.6%82 W · 77 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f53…4bccbacked No74c202.26$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.261154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06db…5244backed Yes27c200$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533447.1%16 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+30%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed Yes12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420243.1%87 W · 115 L+30.9wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+39.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes8c200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1531344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x169a…55e4backed No55c187$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.151540%6 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-27.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes31c186.66$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5385725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xd5a7…4d86backed No55c183$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.351172.7%8 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.28per pick45cpaid+77.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3087…f8fbbacked No55c181$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.451040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3506…4815backed No55c176$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.21250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf0f…e9e9backed Yes13c165.44$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213627.8%10 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-47.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes12c164.29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9311226.8%30 W · 82 L-0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a92…d2e9backed Yes45c161$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.451136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-41.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes13c160.1$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.711879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes25c157.59$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.712227.9%34 W · 88 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d68…1474backed No79c157.36$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.652740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+60.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ca0…038ebacked No65c153.48$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.48977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+29.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1d8…e846backed No66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.52475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c2d…ddd6backed No55c140$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632050%10 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8440…a714backed Yes33c130$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.43748.6%18 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+17%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9454…7f72backed Yes35c114.98$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-36.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e47…db27backed Yes45c108$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.61428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.4wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-44.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa9ab…d0a0backed No55c105$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.251338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-36.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x743d…f77ebacked No64c104.99$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.32050%10 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x29e9…fec1backed Yes24c103.6$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-52.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafa0…e2b0backed No73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+32.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e34…63f7backed No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355364.2%34 W · 19 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3513140.5%53 W · 78 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes30c99.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4334432.3%111 W · 233 L-31.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3368…f496backed No63c95.31$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.313100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d58…cfccbacked No77c84.11$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1115338.6%59 W · 94 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9150…26f4backed Yes38c79.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304015%6 W · 34 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-57.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes28c77.52$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9686542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf9b…2d24backed Yes29c69.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201540%6 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+94%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff5d…4e58backed Yes46c67$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.821526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-49.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfb74…ae29backed Yes30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017128.7%49 W · 122 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4586…158cbacked No75c66.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.671764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+26.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb543…9961backed Yes21c59.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.610121.8%22 W · 79 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97d9…1baabacked No66c59.98$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.54911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.7wins-0.41per pick52cpaid-83.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6988…9f4ebacked No67c59.81$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.819942.4%42 W · 57 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa90a…da95backed Yes33c58.95$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.453256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+38.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed Yes20c58.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9112433.1%41 W · 83 L-12.5wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-28.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x96f2…c836backed Yes39c51.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204524.4%11 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.