Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 5, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25ed6a874ec365d45ffffd3fdb3a53adeacb50c0e021c3133a2deb7fe336e4c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $215,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $185,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $215,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 221 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2987…0d2cbacked Yes | 0c | 12,033$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36de…9d67backed Yes | 1c | 10,684$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1645…2ce6backed Yes | 2c | 9,764$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed Yes | 15c | 8,255$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,895$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 3,800$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…0c32backed Yes | 57c | 3,491$1,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,977.4 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c9…8072backed No | 65c | 3,126$2,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.71 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 36c | 2,929$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.75 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 0c | 2,832$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x896e…8902backed Yes | 60c | 2,780$1,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,666.78 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…97e9backed Yes | 19c | 2,698$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.57 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 36c | 2,120$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.95 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bca…53dcbacked Yes | 75c | 1,991$1,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,486.84 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,890$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…6a14backed Yes | 2c | 1,856$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,854$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…79c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,750$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 57 | 0%0 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c40…3d64backed Yes | 1c | 1,750$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,667$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…81c0backed Yes | 39c | 1,495$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…c5a4backed Yes | 14c | 1,441$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.37 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac8e…64a9backed Yes | 14c | 1,435$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6d48…d6f1backed No | 61c | 1,409$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.51 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +51%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…e7f9backed Yes | 13c | 1,257$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.16 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed Yes | 39c | 1,173$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.47 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 1c | 1,099$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b1…d1a2backed Yes | 4c | 1,071$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3d…9095backed No | 71c | 1,058$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Yes | 14c | 1,020$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.62 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +70%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,017$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.23 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes | 32c | 985$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.2 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca51…f958backed Yes | 39c | 966$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 1c | 904.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed No | 61c | 888$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.11 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 847.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9f4ebacked No | 45c | 811.27$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.5 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked No | 68c | 810$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.2 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +55%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…836ebacked Yes | 36c | 767$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.12 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 4c | 762.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 133 | 21.8%29 W · 104 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf62b…844abacked No | 69c | 726.97$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.97 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed Yes | 5c | 716.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 66c | 695.67$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.52 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ec…5968backed Yes | 26c | 691.14$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.69 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked No | 64c | 682$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb83e…10fcbacked Yes | 34c | 632$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 55c | 629.36$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.24 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79f1…2d21backed Yes | 36c | 608.97$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 54c | 598$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.71 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 28c | 590.22$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.93 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed No | 66c | 568$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.12 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2217…7c33backed Yes | 21c | 565.41$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed No | 61c | 565$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.35 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11c6…e25ebacked Yes | 32c | 531$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked No | 63c | 524$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.88 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked Yes | 37c | 524$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.88 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…4b34backed Yes | 70c | 510.53$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.35 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed Yes | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 8c | 499.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…e065backed No | 61c | 465$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 464.23$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 425.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…8238backed No | 68c | 412$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 32c | 399.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +24.9wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3a…d8b8backed Yes | 67c | 388.66$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.96 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c24…b10ebacked Yes | 27c | 374.86$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.44 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed No | 65c | 371$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.85 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed Yes | 35c | 371$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.85 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e8…0838backed Yes | 73c | 349.96$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.4 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 63c | 347.71$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc82…9530backed No | 33c | 347.35$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.01 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed No | 60c | 343$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed No | 61c | 343$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.77 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed Yes | 40c | 343$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.2 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e9…9452backed Yes | 68c | 314.64$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.09 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d3…6781backed No | 66c | 302.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.57 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 13c | 300.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9147…f424backed No | 65c | 299.99$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked Yes | 30c | 295.15$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.83 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…d3bebacked Yes | 14c | 273.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 6c | 257.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2068…b53bbacked Yes | 33c | 256$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.48 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked No | 25c | 249.27$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.27 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 26c | 248.81$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.87 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +102%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 14c | 232.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b10…e48fbacked Yes | 45c | 224.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86f…256fbacked Yes | 30c | 219.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ea…209bbacked No | 44c | 217.85$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -57%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2e…4f7bbacked Yes | 21c | 215.34$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa5…23d2backed No | 59c | 210.09$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 47c | 203.29$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.59 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x406d…c36fbacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…63f7backed No | 57c | 200$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddd…9640backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…941ebacked Yes | 79c | 199.99$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.99 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…fb7dbacked Yes | 44c | 182.47$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffe…4071backed No | 55c | 170.18$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.18 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 5, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 17, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.