TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x406d…c36f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
109
Categories scored
30
Categories below 50
16

Best Category: CS2, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category CS2 at 55 out of 100; worst Serie A at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2025, EST1421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+42.9%+$60
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$18
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+150.1%+$119.89
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$92.2
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$14.85
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$49.74
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$82.6
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$152.6
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$89.9
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$19
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+222.6%+$68.99
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$22
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$21.3
All 14 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT1361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+31.9%+$10.7
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$10.49
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.32
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.17
Will Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+27.6%+$24.82
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$10.51
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+53.8%+$9.23
Will Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+55.2%+$42.42
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$11.36
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$19.2
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$22.08
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+53.8%+$8.75
Will West Ham win on 2025-11-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+747.5%+$88.2
All 13 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+31.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
CS2 — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffsbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.57
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5)backed FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$21.3
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stagebacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$19.88
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Playoffsbacked TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.62
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Abacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.1
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Abacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+272.8%+$62.7
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO5) - ESL Pro League Playoffsbacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.78
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffsbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.76
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs B8 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+85.2%+$11.87
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs NIP (BO3)backed Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+170.3%+$220.5
All 10 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$12.41
Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$42.73
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.97
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+61.6%+$39.55
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.12
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+98.6%+$14.84
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.11
FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.7
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.11
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+91.9%+$13.35
All 10 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-75.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Cricket — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Serie A — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+56.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+55.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
La Liga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-24.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Dec 8, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+40.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-38.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-56.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Olympics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick38cpaid+169%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+145.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rauw Alejandro perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+164%+$82.01
Bills vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+127.3%+$56
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+72.4%+$21
Will the government shutdown end November 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+42.9%+$48.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lady Gaga win 2 Grammys?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$918Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+39.5%+$362.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blue Jays vs. Dodgersbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+28.4%+$7.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+25.3%+$12.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$68
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$10.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 24, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$115
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before US x Iran ceasefire?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Nov 21, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: OG vs Team Liquid (BO3)backed OG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.