Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f3c4cb99edb021ba606123a9dabfa90ee0f88eb7115b04dd1f56be5a24415b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,631 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes | 1c | 10,002$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 7c | 8,512$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.7 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 7c | 7,574$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.37 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…1aeabacked Yes | 13c | 6,275$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.12 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,768$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.49 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 2c | 3,585$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.36 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…0158backed Yes | 12c | 2,536$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,058$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.48 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 1,356$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe95a…71c4backed Yes | 12c | 1,079$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb969…8d70backed Yes | 7c | 898.27$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.74 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 7c | 800.68$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…008cbacked Yes | 6c | 781.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd359…d361backed Yes | 15c | 649.03$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 7c | 545.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6d…f901backed Yes | 16c | 392.36$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 6c | 362.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…00ddbacked Yes | 4c | 332.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e12…bdb6backed Yes | 16c | 330.45$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f5…71e9backed Yes | 6c | 316.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…162cbacked Yes | 10c | 309.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 7c | 298.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf561…7c7cbacked Yes | 11c | 298.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…d0a7backed Yes | 15c | 266$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 17c | 258.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 251.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…61d5backed Yes | 8c | 245.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 14c | 241.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad34…c649backed Yes | 13c | 235.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…a745backed Yes | 11c | 226.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x406d…c36fbacked Yes | 6c | 191.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e3…cad2backed Yes | 13c | 145$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 16c | 127.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa903…a7a6backed Yes | 8c | 125.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9395…b9cabacked Yes | 14c | 121.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9338…25f0backed Yes | 8c | 120.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…ba4fbacked Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -71%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1695…324cbacked Yes | 16c | 114.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…04dbbacked Yes | 11c | 108$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bf…6d32backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b62…c3cbbacked Yes | 13c | 102.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65d6…b8fabacked Yes | 18c | 101.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ad…60e2backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8361…8e6dbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 92.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…433bbacked Yes | 11c | 91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 20c | 76.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2455…a70fbacked Yes | 16c | 62.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…0610backed Yes | 59c | 61.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…602bbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82c…6941backed No | 79c | 25.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 20?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 20?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 20?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 20?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 20?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by March 20?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by March 20?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by March 20?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by March 20?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $95 by March 20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.