Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2858c056e673d4962f321a6390341da10adcc8044490a7b096afe14b933fde51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 10c | 10,000$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.67 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes | 3c | 7,197$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 4,139$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,906$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.77 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 15c | 3,199$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.24 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 16c | 2,717$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.04 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aea…b485backed Yes | 14c | 2,439$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 10c | 2,124$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.3 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 5c | 1,999$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.09 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,464$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.58 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 15c | 1,343$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.55 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…9f36backed Yes | 29c | 1,210$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…008cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,014$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a37…acf0backed Yes | 6c | 850.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 750.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de7…89a4backed Yes | 3c | 746.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Yes | 19c | 624.94$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.86 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 73c | 582.94$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.48 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20c4…97c9backed Yes | 18c | 562.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2feb…b324backed Yes | 13c | 537.85$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.41 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 71c | 529.95$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.19 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7971…8dd0backed Yes | 29c | 518.29$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd359…d361backed Yes | 23c | 516.66$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 19c | 499.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ad…60e2backed Yes | 31c | 486.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 10c | 483.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 451.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -15.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x576b…6257backed Yes | 29c | 449.86$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc9…0fb5backed Yes | 7c | 442.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Yes | 3c | 409$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea7b…9c4dbacked Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4714…c177backed No | 77c | 387.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.32 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671d…c1c6backed Yes | 23c | 378.68$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 27c | 373$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.46 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x988f…f304backed Yes | 29c | 372.55$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7063…eb48backed Yes | 28c | 363.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a55…7319backed Yes | 16c | 359.21$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 352.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed No | 73c | 348$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.96 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea15…c292backed Yes | 30c | 335.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 14c | 320.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ae…f3babacked Yes | 17c | 309.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f1…6395backed Yes | 13c | 309.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7425…651abacked Yes | 16c | 304.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 15c | 304.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd552…5ebebacked Yes | 33c | 301.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3689…e964backed Yes | 4c | 301.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf561…7c7cbacked Yes | 11c | 258.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 71c | 257.77$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.51 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7843…bbf2backed Yes | 26c | 247.28$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…8f30backed Yes | 12c | 246.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312b…e02bbacked Yes | 30c | 233.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 21c | 224.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0c…f746backed Yes | 27c | 219.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b53…3598backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…74a8backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…a2b5backed Yes | 15c | 190.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 186.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0267…620dbacked Yes | 24c | 184.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b13…e8c8backed Yes | 25c | 175$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b37…7f2fbacked Yes | 13c | 172.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e92…1910backed Yes | 24c | 172.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed Yes | 27c | 169.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 39cpaid | -82%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaa…a1a1backed Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 28c | 152.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 151.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b48…0415backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1205…8713backed Yes | 26c | 139.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb969…8d70backed Yes | 15c | 138.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes | 21c | 135$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked No | 75c | 132.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +60%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 12c | 131.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f17…66c7backed No | 78c | 127.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 11c | 126.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked No | 74c | 118.52$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed No | 75c | 117.88$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked Yes | 27c | 117.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…6769backed Yes | 27c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf85…6cb5backed Yes | 19c | 107.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 75c | 99.98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Yes | 25c | 99.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4459…3a7cbacked Yes | 31c | 97.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf91…ce67backed Yes | 13c | 95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 72c | 91.26$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae3…cfb4backed No | 80c | 89.63$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…bb4abacked No | 75c | 88.64$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ce…7e0cbacked Yes | 12c | 88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x396b…1759backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1695…324cbacked Yes | 28c | 78.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 19c | 78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae09…6a64backed Yes | 35c | 71.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x258c…9b67backed Yes | 23c | 71.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…7324backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e9…4262backed Yes | 30c | 66.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…0828backed Yes | 26c | 61.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 71c | 57.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 20?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 20?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 20?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 20?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 20?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by March 20?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by March 20?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by March 20?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by March 20?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $95 by March 20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.