TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$101,834
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$99,479

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,834 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd519…932cbacked Yes10c10,000$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.672330.4%7 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick23cpaid-37.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes3c7,197$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200170%0 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c4,139$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.71306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes3c3,906$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.77932.2%2 W · 91 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes15c3,199$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.2430238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes16c2,717$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.048617.4%15 W · 71 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6aea…b485backed Yes14c2,439$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.450%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes10c2,124$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.35018%9 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes5c1,999$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.09224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-55.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes10c1,464$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.582123.8%5 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes15c1,343$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.5521011.9%25 W · 185 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-59.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc6d…9f36backed Yes29c1,210$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x48ee…008cbacked Yes10c1,014$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005545.5%25 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a37…acf0backed Yes6c850.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c750.19$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.51,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2de7…89a4backed Yes3c746.23$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacbe…85d4backed Yes19c624.94$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.861926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-31%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No73c582.94$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.484856.3%27 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-3.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x20c4…97c9backed Yes18c562.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-69.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2feb…b324backed Yes13c537.85$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.411711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-43.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked No71c529.95$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.191471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7971…8dd0backed Yes29c518.29$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502544%11 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd359…d361backed Yes23c516.66$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.15425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-59.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes19c499.99$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953528.6%10 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4ad…60e2backed Yes31c486.98$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes10c483.43$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.681884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes13c451.28$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.912829.7%38 W · 90 L-15.7wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-55.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x576b…6257backed Yes29c449.86$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddc9…0fb5backed Yes7c442.86$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed Yes3c409$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.046651.5%34 W · 32 L+6.8wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes10c400$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402927.6%8 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea7b…9c4dbacked Yes6c400$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.640%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4714…c177backed No77c387.32$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.321747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x671d…c1c6backed Yes23c378.68$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.8630%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes27c373$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.464526.7%12 W · 33 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x988f…f304backed Yes29c372.55$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7063…eb48backed Yes28c363.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a55…7319backed Yes16c359.21$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed Yes14c357.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505048%24 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes13c352.22$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9424126.1%63 W · 178 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed No73c348$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.961942.1%8 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea15…c292backed Yes30c335.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes14c320.61$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.44211.9%5 W · 37 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49ae…f3babacked Yes17c309.4$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.591060%6 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3f1…6395backed Yes13c309.1$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7425…651abacked Yes16c304.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes15c304.56$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.737921.5%17 W · 62 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd552…5ebebacked Yes33c301.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-76.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3689…e964backed Yes4c301.59$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No76c300$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7214849.3%73 W · 75 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf561…7c7cbacked Yes11c258.03$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282623.1%6 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-41.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No71c257.77$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.5110739.3%42 W · 65 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7843…bbf2backed Yes26c247.28$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe17b…8f30backed Yes12c246.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x312b…e02bbacked Yes30c233.77$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71ab…f015backed Yes21c224.01$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0413949.6%69 W · 70 L+20.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+41.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x2f0c…f746backed Yes27c219.58$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-61.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201212.5%3 W · 118 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b53…3598backed Yes14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2880%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa84d…74a8backed No77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x847e…a2b5backed Yes15c190.57$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes19c186.4$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.830718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0267…620dbacked Yes24c184.61$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.67120%0 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0b13…e8c8backed Yes25c175$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.15333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b37…7f2fbacked Yes13c172.62$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e92…1910backed Yes24c172.2$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.87137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick22cpaid-75.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed Yes27c169.56$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.52812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick39cpaid-82%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdaaa…a1a1backed Yes18c166.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+118.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes28c152.02$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2932023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes8c151.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.582324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b48…0415backed Yes7c150$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-65.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1205…8713backed Yes26c139.3$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb969…8d70backed Yes15c138.1$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2590%0 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes21c135$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.014645.7%21 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c9…17afbacked No75c132.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+60%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes12c131.41$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0518637.6%70 W · 116 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f17…66c7backed No78c127.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes11c126.92$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9911032.7%36 W · 74 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0330…eb8fbacked No74c118.52$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.52157.1%12 W · 9 L+4.2wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+44.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed No75c117.88$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.091050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf900…cd0cbacked Yes27c117.31$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.673070%21 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f4d…6769backed Yes27c110$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf85…6cb5backed Yes19c107.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No75c99.98$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.819419.1%37 W · 157 L-35.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-63.9%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Yes25c99.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.32540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-41.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4459…3a7cbacked Yes31c97.64$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf91…ce67backed Yes13c95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No72c91.26$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.558637.2%32 W · 54 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-28.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3ae3…cfb4backed No80c89.63$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…bb4abacked No75c88.64$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.28650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x88ce…7e0cbacked Yes12c88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x396b…1759backed Yes29c86.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1695…324cbacked Yes28c78.57$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222025%5 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes19c78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.88234.3%1 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick17cpaid-73.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xae09…6a64backed Yes35c71.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+19.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x258c…9b67backed Yes23c71.22$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.211323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-41.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c1…7324backed No75c70$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.261080%8 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e9…4262backed Yes30c66.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ac…0828backed Yes26c61.88$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea12…993bbacked No71c57.34$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.567744.2%34 W · 43 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.