Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82afea5fd65fdb10d56a5557c93cfb6dec541d838c86632f011265d13be7afa3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $289,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $289,138 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 314 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ca7…8195backed Yes | 3c | 29,413$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.01 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -27%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Yes | 7c | 16,383$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.64 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes | 0c | 10,197$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…df9ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 12c | 9,309$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.77 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 7c | 7,844$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.1 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ac…4e4dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,377$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 35c | 3,997$1,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,385.96 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 13c | 3,512$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.71 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0e…3165backed Yes | 26c | 3,007$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.27 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 15c | 2,967$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.49 | 294 | 47.3%139 W · 155 L | +34.3wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 78c | 2,831$2,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.19 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4e…43fbbacked Yes | 0c | 2,537$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a781backed Yes | 62c | 2,389$1,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,486.58 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 10c | 2,371$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.17 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…a745backed No | 58c | 2,190$1,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.31 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 31c | 2,111$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 29c | 2,100$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.28 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked Yes | 38c | 1,971$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.78 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd722…0564backed Yes | 52c | 1,767$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.38 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed Yes | 9c | 1,683$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.42 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf018…f0b4backed No | 72c | 1,375$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad34…c649backed Yes | 10c | 1,373$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes | 44c | 1,369$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.56 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa3…6721backed No | 65c | 1,366$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.7 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…907dbacked Yes | 80c | 1,360$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…eb11backed Yes | 11c | 1,285$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.86 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed No | 80c | 1,247$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.23 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…cd4abacked Yes | 5c | 1,237$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc2…98a6backed Yes | 63c | 1,199$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7787backed No | 69c | 1,141$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.97 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1c…6c25backed No | 67c | 1,111$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.89 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1f4cbacked No | 54c | 1,052$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.03 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6aea…b485backed Yes | 34c | 1,038$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…9f36backed Yes | 69c | 1,023$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Yes | 64c | 961.15$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.01 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 27c | 917.7$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.33 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 62c | 917.68$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.45 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…3b6cbacked No | 38c | 879.64$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.64 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 14c | 857.09$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 11c | 831$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.47 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…665dbacked No | 47c | 820.44$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.38 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca4f…ff9ebacked No | 61c | 813.5$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7063…eb48backed Yes | 79c | 757.33$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed Yes | 42c | 726.47$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.83 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 70c | 706.4$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.92 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed No | 25c | 675$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.38per pick | 26cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…e6bdbacked No | 26c | 675$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.73 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +5.4wins | +0.54per pick | 26cpaid | +264.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…bb4abacked No | 38c | 664.43$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 51c | 599$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.33 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92bd…a35ebacked No | 68c | 588.15$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.66 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +42%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 29c | 587.52$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.38 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 63c | 585.48$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.1 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 65c | 580$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 26c | 522.52$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.85 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcffc…2a55backed Yes | 67c | 521$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbc…8893backed Yes | 56c | 456$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…dc73backed No | 76c | 431.24$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.81 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe87f…7822backed Yes | 63c | 431.02$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 77c | 426.23$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.45 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…0835backed Yes | 65c | 423.86$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed No | 48c | 420.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.02 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed Yes | 54c | 418.01$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.43 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f54…0161backed No | 60c | 416.92$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde3b…6e42backed No | 45c | 412.75$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked No | 49c | 409.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +60%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x057f…94a3backed Yes | 55c | 406.52$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.86 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9d…1bcfbacked Yes | 65c | 379.34$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.91 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8661…cc59backed Yes | 41c | 370.23$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0267…620dbacked Yes | 29c | 362.48$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.87 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…4403backed Yes | 56c | 357.07$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes | 27c | 355.55$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.09 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…13e1backed Yes | 28c | 352.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…efd6backed Yes | 21c | 349.27$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.85 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 42c | 349.18$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.61 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…a90abacked No | 61c | 332.95$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e4…fb34backed No | 75c | 327.13$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.46 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb87c…b3ddbacked Yes | 34c | 320.39$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 22c | 313.78$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.75 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd32e…35b7backed Yes | 66c | 312.26$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked Yes | 24c | 310.59$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.31 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 33c | 300$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed Yes | 65c | 300$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47dd…ee57backed Yes | 56c | 299$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 46c | 292.91$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ee…6cf2backed Yes | 10c | 286.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…248abacked Yes | 36c | 276.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e31…a06fbacked No | 44c | 275.37$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2473…d6a0backed Yes | 37c | 268.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…00ddbacked Yes | 18c | 263.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd972…c9f4backed No | 45c | 261.91$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2af…28c3backed Yes | 58c | 251.87$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.88 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc3…fc36backed Yes | 40c | 250.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf861…895dbacked Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…008cbacked Yes | 41c | 245.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 34c | 241.19$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.46 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e5…d25fbacked Yes | 44c | 238.7$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20c4…97c9backed Yes | 44c | 227.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked No | 48c | 209.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.59 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 20?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 20?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 20?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 20?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 20?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by March 20?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by March 20?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by March 20?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by March 20?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $95 by March 20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.