TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Astralisof Astralis, Spirit
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$904,804
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,037,192

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $904,804 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 713 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Astralis21c100,000$21,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78,936.0642440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Spirit78c90,976$71,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71,348.2422049.1%108 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Spirit80c35,163$28,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,107.9912552.8%66 W · 59 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Astralis20c30,146$6,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,113.6433043.3%143 W · 187 L+1.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Astralis20c27,818$5,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,311.0641649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Astralis20c20,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,00039249%192 W · 200 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Spirit80c17,777$14,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,221.69256.5%52 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Astralis20c17,156$3,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,696.5630340.3%122 W · 181 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Astralis43c13,855$6,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,845.8175450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Astralis58c13,541$7,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,669.0639248.7%191 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Spirit79c13,214$10,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,501.2337646.3%174 W · 202 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed Spirit80c12,608$10,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,086.3519660.7%119 W · 77 L-13.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-7.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Astralis50c12,250$6,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,121.8483652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6902…b4cabacked Spirit79c10,066$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,00025751.8%133 W · 124 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Astralis20c10,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,00021424.8%53 W · 161 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Astralis51c10,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,899.9981843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Astralis21c9,251$1,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,307.9219645.4%89 W · 107 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Astralis30c9,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,299.9971645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Astralis51c8,802$4,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,303.0664552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x62ca…1760backed Spirit79c8,656$6,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,838.151457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Astralis75c8,581$6,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,167.8915050.7%76 W · 74 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Spirit7c8,448$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.5856732.5%184 W · 383 L-30.0wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-36.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Spirit60c8,340$5,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00422354.7%122 W · 101 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Spirit54c8,285$4,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,503.8835850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Spirit23c7,044$1,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,653.782,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Astralis21c7,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,529.9911637.9%44 W · 72 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed Spirit64c6,285$4,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,023.222448.7%109 W · 115 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Astralis69c6,106$4,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,898.292,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Astralis53c6,063$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,863.4935236.4%128 W · 224 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38b0…060cbacked Astralis21c5,945$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,696.524546.7%21 W · 24 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+32.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc05…013abacked Spirit66c5,859$3,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,852.24971.4%35 W · 14 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Astralis52c5,802$3,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,785.0532348.9%158 W · 165 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Spirit79c5,760$4,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,550.352245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Spirit44c5,726$2,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,515.924,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Astralis52c5,500$2,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,654.9714954.4%81 W · 68 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Spirit39c5,463$2,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,110.873,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b4cabacked Spirit50c5,206$2,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,602.8312328.5%35 W · 88 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-31.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Spirit73c5,060$3,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,711.5742142%177 W · 244 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68d7…1c0bbacked Spirit80c5,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x098b…1fa5backed Astralis20c5,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,00012441.1%51 W · 73 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a46…ab25backed Astralis64c4,968$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,767.811550.4%58 W · 57 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb11…8f3fbacked Spirit79c4,800$3,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7921662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+29.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5a6…5270backed Spirit79c4,800$3,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,791.992634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-30.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Astralis59c4,750$2,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,967.441,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8398…fe44backed Spirit53c4,629$2,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,433.48560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+1,975.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Astralis54c4,560$2,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,088.7888746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x059e…54d1backed Astralis39c4,535$1,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,786.695955.9%33 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick59cpaid+5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a24…4a1fbacked Spirit79c4,508$3,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,560.944452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Astralis21c4,500$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,564.981,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked Spirit48c4,500$2,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,154.9616240.1%65 W · 97 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd857…c092backed Spirit79c4,487$3,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,539.41735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-29.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Astralis21c4,432$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,483.921,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Spirit17c4,225$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.3981244.3%360 W · 452 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2908…789abacked Spirit80c4,085$3,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,263.22548%12 W · 13 L-4.1wins-0.16per pick64cpaid-27.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Astralis61c4,072$2,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,606.771,03361.6%636 W · 397 L+87.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Astralis20c4,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,20014934.9%52 W · 97 L-14.1wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0785…81c3backed Spirit80c4,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20015970.4%112 W · 47 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-0.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2698…0958backed Spirit47c4,000$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8806553.8%35 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa89c…398fbacked Astralis21c4,000$844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,156.322128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb80…ab99backed Spirit79c4,000$3,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,159.96875%6 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Spirit3c3,992$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.753,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Astralis42c3,893$1,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,238.752,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x562b…f85fbacked Spirit65c3,844$2,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,496.255855.2%32 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked Spirit78c3,746$2,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,922.2229046.9%136 W · 154 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x62d5…76eabacked Spirit52c3,713$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,920.183842.1%16 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e8…6300backed Spirit49c3,500$1,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7151861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Astralis21c3,500$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,760.5313545.9%62 W · 73 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda63…b031backed Spirit44c3,495$1,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5557755.8%43 W · 34 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Spirit79c3,403$2,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,688.1446949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc255…0470backed Spirit79c3,383$2,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,689.0114863.5%94 W · 54 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Astralis51c3,269$1,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.8798052.4%514 W · 466 L+26.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ab4…96a5backed Spirit79c3,167$2,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,501.98050%40 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Spirit17c3,163$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.682,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2a5…391cbacked Spirit49c3,100$1,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,51910550.5%53 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Spirit18c3,036$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.2117042.9%73 W · 97 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Spirit14c3,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4207450%37 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdaa…8420backed Astralis21c3,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3702520%5 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb12b…5a89backed Spirit79c3,000$2,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,369.836168.9%42 W · 19 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6463…1f5cbacked Astralis51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,469.993951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Astralis31c2,951$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,036.7978639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d9e…456bbacked Spirit49c2,941$1,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,441.135655.4%31 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+57.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa019…f444backed Spirit69c2,899$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0009643.8%42 W · 54 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Astralis59c2,880$1,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,191.341,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Astralis48c2,683$1,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,393.995,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x27c5…6d61backed Spirit38c2,675$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0106934.8%24 W · 45 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Astralis46c2,564$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,373.6361837.9%234 W · 384 L-22.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Astralis21c2,549$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,006.555349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aec…b4cebacked Astralis20c2,527$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,027.371942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Spirit51c2,513$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,293.6157358.8%337 W · 236 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b87…6a47backed Spirit80c2,509$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00013059.2%77 W · 53 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Astralis20c2,481$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,980.931,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2a6…9837backed Spirit79c2,441$1,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,928.464643.5%20 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb87…0335backed Astralis21c2,381$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,880.9536554.8%200 W · 165 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Spirit48c2,313$1,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,114.1446843.4%203 W · 265 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7337…1fafbacked Astralis31c2,277$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,577.8519022.6%43 W · 147 L-10.2wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3160…ffeabacked Spirit80c2,165$1,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7322339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Spirit69c2,164$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50027452.9%145 W · 129 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a71…e454backed Spirit49c2,138$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,03724944.6%111 W · 138 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd22d…7336backed Spirit80c2,125$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7001855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick59cpaid+1.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9386…fdfebacked Spirit56c2,095$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.132441.7%10 W · 14 L-3.9wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-40%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.