TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Blue Jays vs. Dodgers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Blue Jaysof Blue Jays, Dodgers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,933,211
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,970,666

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,933,211 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 805 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5afb…4511backed Blue Jays36c1,000,314$358,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641,572.531241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Dodgers63c462,697$292,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292,557.436653%35 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Blue Jays36c312,963$112,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200,252.462347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Dodgers64c213,260$136,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136,770.525453.5%136 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Blue Jays40c152,499$61,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91,216.4911759%69 W · 48 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Dodgers52c112,627$58,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,185.31,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Dodgers50c100,000$49,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,980.0353150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1d9…5ee1backed Dodgers64c99,230$63,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63,461.76850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Blue Jays35c87,655$30,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,250.0543949.4%217 W · 222 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Dodgers64c76,491$49,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,113.8563152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Dodgers64c70,472$45,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,182.237753.2%41 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+50%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Blue Jays47c66,165$30,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,212.52445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9e6…025bbacked Dodgers65c65,027$42,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Dodgers65c57,600$37,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,267.191560%9 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Dodgers64c54,000$34,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,6004965.3%32 W · 17 L+7.0wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+28%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Dodgers65c53,294$34,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,604.673145.2%14 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b8c…1556backed Dodgers50c50,013$25,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,005.66666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb1e…88d5backed Dodgers64c39,604$25,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,425.687058.6%41 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Blue Jays59c36,525$21,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,968.3812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Dodgers64c31,550$20,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,204.6713246.2%61 W · 71 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-13.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Dodgers64c31,250$20,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,065.3711456.1%64 W · 50 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa74c…64a0backed Dodgers64c28,469$18,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,358.64250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe42e…8d89backed Dodgers65c24,999$16,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,341.61650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066e…ceb2backed Dodgers14c24,624$3,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,520.0725240.1%101 W · 151 L+0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Dodgers52c24,020$12,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,564.331,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7509…4b9dbacked Blue Jays43c23,277$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,277.16540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Dodgers64c21,739$13,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,978.474445.5%20 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-20.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Dodgers64c20,907$13,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,484.851,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Blue Jays35c20,000$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,999.922100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+182.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ed7…e617backed Dodgers64c18,988$12,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,173.3920%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e3f…e00bbacked Blue Jays35c18,739$6,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,110.492646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Blue Jays49c18,706$9,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,481.9414153.9%76 W · 65 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Blue Jays66c18,141$11,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,176.5778445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Dodgers58c16,500$9,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,6206660.6%40 W · 26 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+11.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3b59…41c5backed Blue Jays35c16,400$5,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,6601100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Dodgers64c16,000$10,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,294.7320850%104 W · 104 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Dodgers55c15,728$8,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,681.1211743.6%51 W · 66 L-13.1wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-18%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Dodgers64c15,555$9,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,929.652356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Dodgers18c15,421$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,700.3146239.6%183 W · 279 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x823c…0425backed Dodgers64c14,277$9,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,165.93865.8%25 W · 13 L+4.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+19.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Dodgers65c14,000$9,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,10013065.4%85 W · 45 L+7.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Blue Jays78c13,727$10,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,088.672227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-33.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Dodgers3c13,556$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.854754.4%21 W · 454 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-72.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa447…cc98backed Dodgers49c13,005$6,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,408.24650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Dodgers64c13,000$8,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,326.98757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+11.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8b8c…9390backed Dodgers30c12,211$3,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,608.3757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Blue Jays67c11,937$7,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,953.051,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Dodgers14c11,048$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,530.496133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd44…00e4backed Blue Jays35c11,000$3,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,149.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Dodgers1c10,693$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.92475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+59.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Blue Jays35c10,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,5001100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5787…7660backed Dodgers64c10,000$6,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,400333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Blue Jays35c10,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,5001050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+33.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xafd0…00c1backed Blue Jays36c9,900$3,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,3362100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+211.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3dfc…7deebacked Dodgers66c9,500$6,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,27020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x13e8…8509backed Dodgers65c9,000$5,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,863.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa424…752abacked Dodgers0c9,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1f…3d24backed Dodgers3c8,924$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Dodgers55c8,916$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9003040%12 W · 18 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-25.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc576…21c0backed Dodgers66c8,900$5,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,87420%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Dodgers2c8,837$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.4940629.1%118 W · 288 L-2.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Dodgers34c7,810$2,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,663.079,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccc0…0fa5backed Blue Jays36c7,800$2,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,026.991275%9 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+55.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x31b0…8c4cbacked Blue Jays36c7,768$2,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,989.0911554.8%63 W · 52 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd3e…d1c4backed Dodgers65c7,178$4,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,665.64650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Dodgers65c7,136$4,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,638.231070%7 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+26.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Dodgers64c6,795$4,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,352.3111551.3%59 W · 56 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9b7…e9babacked Blue Jays36c6,532$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,182.11425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x03c5…5592backed Blue Jays36c6,343$2,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,061.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+85.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee1e…912ebacked Dodgers64c6,200$3,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,968250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+72.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa71a…e4e2backed Blue Jays41c6,193$2,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,677.09742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x707b…69f2backed Dodgers65c6,192$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0005745.6%26 W · 31 L-6.8wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-18%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Dodgers53c6,187$3,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,277.112,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff16…7511backed Blue Jays36c6,000$2,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,862.622642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Blue Jays34c5,917$2,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,882.61560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+108.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Dodgers64c5,674$3,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,652.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1adc…c60dbacked Blue Jays35c5,606$1,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,643.95250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Blue Jays36c5,576$2,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,575.417139.4%28 W · 43 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c0b…9f41backed Dodgers64c5,556$3,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,556.05450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc760…1761backed Dodgers15c5,346$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Dodgers1c5,051$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.25053.8%19 W · 486 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Dodgers64c5,000$3,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20544749.2%220 W · 227 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Blue Jays35c5,000$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2503243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa068…9574backed Blue Jays34c5,000$1,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,279.991546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Dodgers64c4,902$3,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1457548%36 W · 39 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1bc…9dc9backed Blue Jays28c4,902$1,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,529.622931%9 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a7c…d6f0backed Dodgers64c4,816$3,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,082.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e3…5febbacked Dodgers64c4,748$3,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,038.82560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd339…d3a1backed Dodgers62c4,515$2,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,779.73425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-34.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5993…33a2backed Dodgers65c4,272$2,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,778.221154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04ec…580fbacked Blue Jays36c4,202$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,701.891050%5 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+33.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5248…aabbbacked Blue Jays36c4,200$1,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,700.312965.5%19 W · 10 L+5.0wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+33.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Blue Jays36c4,173$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,672.963052.7%332 W · 298 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Blue Jays35c4,100$1,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,66533140.2%133 W · 198 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Dodgers63c4,097$2,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,572.0912850%64 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca01…c62fbacked Blue Jays36c4,088$1,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,636.92250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+40.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Dodgers2c4,080$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.726524.6%16 W · 49 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+49.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3212…634ebacked Blue Jays35c4,054$1,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6356141%25 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10e7…ee84backed Dodgers64c4,053$2,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,593.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Dodgers64c4,000$2,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,563.9847953.2%255 W · 224 L+18.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.