Ukraine · resolved market
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before US x Iran ceasefire?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2aceb9fdc00a2cf03cb4b70681322e0974d2309a32143003b297410734bbade5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 16c | 6,100$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.94 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 13c | 4,237$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.59 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed Yes | 10c | 4,117$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.02 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 24cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadd1…a4a3backed Yes | 16c | 3,884$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…2ad5backed Yes | 16c | 2,722$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fb…db5cbacked Yes | 13c | 2,353$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.06 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 14c | 1,706$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.22 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2814…5596backed Yes | 16c | 1,521$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed Yes | 11c | 1,464$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 11c | 1,300$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed Yes | 13c | 1,233$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Yes | 17c | 1,150$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.38 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 12c | 1,067$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.35 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eae…5e6dbacked Yes | 12c | 904.25$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd31…8004backed Yes | 19c | 867.33$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 8c | 850$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.12 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…01d6backed Yes | 15c | 838.97$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…0eecbacked Yes | 2c | 814.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 11c | 780$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd32…33b0backed Yes | 14c | 744.86$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2772…5c9cbacked Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6177…c22abacked Yes | 13c | 694$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes | 11c | 600$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Yes | 15c | 599.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa669…99adbacked Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed Yes | 13c | 519.37$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 2c | 515$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 4cpaid | +213.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 13c | 503.6$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.61 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb3…d024backed Yes | 14c | 502.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 14c | 440.31$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd35d…a329backed Yes | 15c | 393.33$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b48…35d0backed Yes | 14c | 336.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…995ebacked Yes | 21c | 336.76$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x178f…45b8backed Yes | 12c | 334.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 19c | 323.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…3f07backed No | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…d705backed Yes | 18c | 277.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa447…413cbacked Yes | 18c | 235.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 220.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ae…61edbacked Yes | 14c | 217.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47e1…6c14backed Yes | 17c | 158.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 16c | 148.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 15c | 145$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ee…5e87backed Yes | 15c | 135.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8c…47c0backed Yes | 17c | 134.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.59per pick | 16cpaid | +457.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…2befbacked Yes | 16c | 129.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc4…bf3abacked Yes | 16c | 124.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 16c | 122.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 19c | 116.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ed…b855backed Yes | 18c | 111.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc73b…bd66backed Yes | 17c | 110$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c30…c42ebacked Yes | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…3ae7backed Yes | 17c | 109$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f59…e61dbacked Yes | 12c | 105$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x406d…c36fbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1431…a949backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 36 | 80.6%29 W · 7 L | +10.1wins | +0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x59fa…80a1backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb97a…ee37backed Yes | 18c | 99.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 20cpaid | +302.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x358d…6af1backed Yes | 14c | 83.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +140.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a73…5650backed Yes | 18c | 77.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked Yes | 17c | 77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4282…3455backed Yes | 17c | 74.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 20cpaid | +149.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…05f7backed Yes | 17c | 71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a9…5976backed Yes | 17c | 67.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ceaabacked Yes | 17c | 62.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…540cbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…1df4backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…bd60backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.