La Liga · resolved market
Real Madrid vs. Valencia: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x412ae0f6be208d59494500283fc0cc371354fa940ce40fbfcf29bb31d88f5f3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc10…3f05backed Under | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 50c | 17,260$8,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,590.82 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9a…5b99backed Under | 48c | 6,226$3,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,004.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 5,406$2,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,650.09 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Over | 62c | 2,309$1,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.96 | 130 | 45.4%59 W · 71 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341e…9b67backed Under | 43c | 1,854$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…15cdbacked Over | 54c | 1,220$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 47c | 1,006$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.96 | 280 | 55%154 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 31c | 943.47$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.53 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d6…cfb9backed Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 44c | 688.81$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.57 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Under | 49c | 647.2$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.13 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 53c | 646.19$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.71 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0196…d9f9backed Over | 56c | 576.46$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.46 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Over | 54c | 418.11$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.33 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…0596backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 49c | 333$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.17 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 95 | 64.2%61 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97b5…42f9backed Under | 46c | 219.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.12 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 202 | 55%111 W · 91 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc794…d09cbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a9…1f13backed Over | 50c | 192$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0efd…a51cbacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…16cabacked Under | 58c | 169.4$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 200 | 47.5%95 W · 105 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 51c | 169$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.81 | 100 | 63%63 W · 37 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d08…763ebacked Over | 52c | 168$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0740…df2fbacked Under | 51c | 110$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x406d…c36fbacked Over | 77c | 109$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b68…795bbacked Over | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda95…e997backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd479…2692backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08dd…55b0backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…71dbbacked Over | 51c | 97.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Over | 48c | 96.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 262 | 42.7%112 W · 150 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa4…3ba0backed Under | 52c | 58.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ed…6d3cbacked Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a1…4799backed Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b1…c973backed Over | 53c | 54.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee40…a72ebacked Under | 52c | 51.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8821…3914backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 146 | 21.9%32 W · 114 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb1…f87dbacked Over | 67c | 49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…75f2backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc997…a1f0backed Under | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…d27cbacked Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa2…2da1backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08cd…4edbbacked Under | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e7…86b8backed Under | 52c | 29.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce3…e373backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…6df5backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…f4c5backed Over | 62c | 25.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Over | 49c | 24.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f6…8af9backed Over | 51c | 23.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…3740backed Over | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7d…5b5abacked Over | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…49b7backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked Over | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfc…1a07backed Over | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 70cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Madrid vs. Valencia: O/U 3.5this page
- Real Madrid vs. Valencia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Spread: Real Madrid (-2.5)Real Madrid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.