La Liga · resolved market
Spread: Real Madrid (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36bdf6fe8a675278cf8011aaa3ed6d8ae2928eba91664877bc03181760a90b5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Real Madridof Real Madrid, Valencia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Real Madrid | 44c | 14,719$6,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,242.53 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Valencia | 56c | 11,695$6,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,527.49 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57af…1a28backed Real Madrid | 44c | 3,462$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,936.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Valencia | 59c | 2,000$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Valencia | 56c | 2,000$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.97 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Valencia | 54c | 1,900$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026 | 146 | 47.9%70 W · 76 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed Real Madrid | 47c | 1,555$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Valencia | 44c | 1,323$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.93 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…d1a6backed Real Madrid | 43c | 461.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.83 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Valencia | 56c | 444$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.64 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Real Madrid | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9b…eb8dbacked Real Madrid | 45c | 248.24$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.53 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Real Madrid | 47c | 227.51$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.58 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ac6abacked Real Madrid | 45c | 209.93$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.46 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Real Madrid | 46c | 204.73$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.73 | 262 | 42.7%112 W · 150 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Real Madrid | 48c | 197.92$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.92 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e48…6fd3backed Real Madrid | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Valencia | 60c | 130$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747e…a528backed Real Madrid | 45c | 111.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…0319backed Real Madrid | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…c716backed Real Madrid | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Real Madrid | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c84…1093backed Valencia | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3faa…2defbacked Valencia | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Real Madrid | 41c | 73.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Real Madrid | 40c | 65.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…8ae4backed Valencia | 54c | 58.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…a2e7backed Real Madrid | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 57cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x787c…7ae2backed Real Madrid | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 51cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Real Madrid | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked Real Madrid | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…7025backed Real Madrid | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd002…2ee8backed Real Madrid | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e1…c4a6backed Real Madrid | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Real Madrid | 45c | 28.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Valencia | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Real Madrid (-2.5)this page
- Real Madrid vs. Valencia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Real Madrid vs. Valencia: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.