TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$412,757
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$413,920

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $412,757 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 398 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5db5…1a50backed Yes12c98,471$11,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,809.196230.6%19 W · 43 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes27c55,946$15,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,033.011,14642.8%490 W · 656 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No75c49,879$37,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,353.82,66145.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L-11.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed No73c40,766$29,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,006.7516651.2%85 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No73c22,417$16,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,052.6738649%189 W · 197 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2c8…5471backed No73c20,000$14,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,399.9114450.7%73 W · 71 L+9.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes26c14,169$3,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,683.92,55047.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No78c13,296$10,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,936.134,74441.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes35c9,330$3,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2836,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfba5…8e17backed No74c7,540$5,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,960.286100%6 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x66e2…41b6backed Yes24c7,478$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,769.942128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-37.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d04…7a5fbacked No73c7,400$5,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9983351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a02…ebffbacked Yes31c6,648$2,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,048.81520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-51.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No61c6,594$4,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,580.0576842.6%327 W · 441 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fd2…1e85backed Yes27c6,175$1,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,667.152623.1%6 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-45.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x30ce…fdcebacked No57c5,296$3,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,274.2410253.9%55 W · 47 L+14.1wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+58.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3ac2…f949backed Yes28c5,081$1,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,441.68350.6%42 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes20c4,760$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9523630.6%11 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b5…a2a7backed Yes24c4,460$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.842642.3%11 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes28c4,198$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,156.7832345.2%146 W · 177 L-1.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed No78c4,082$3,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$893.5213948.9%68 W · 71 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-27.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked Yes26c3,400$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8847343.8%32 W · 41 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked No76c3,061$2,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.0214658.9%86 W · 60 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe87…6fc0backed No80c3,052$2,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.444261.9%26 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed Yes15c2,822$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.2240%0 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3f7…f325backed Yes27c2,656$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.151435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3590…2a4ebacked No68c2,449$1,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.722100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+67.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdb6…9452backed Yes17c2,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-43.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed No73c2,000$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5406262.9%39 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No73c2,000$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.9790751.3%465 W · 442 L-1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No68c1,935$1,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.2153344.8%239 W · 294 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes27c1,912$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.3519729.4%58 W · 139 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked No74c1,803$1,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.857061.4%43 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a90…2827backed Yes27c1,771$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.11931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f34…7684backed Yes25c1,692$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.1910233.3%34 W · 68 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d16…7636backed Yes28c1,685$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.59366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+30.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb86f…da81backed Yes26c1,641$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked No62c1,591$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.769772.6%506 W · 191 L+83.8wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+26.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Yes36c1,539$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.885139.2%20 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12f9…74babacked No78c1,483$1,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.8214975.8%113 W · 36 L+26.0wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+38.6%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xe757…c161backed Yes26c1,360$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.571225%3 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes25c1,242$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.521,22049.8%607 W · 613 L+4.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa18a…d44fbacked Yes40c1,205$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0943…9a52backed No75c1,192$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.96250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x330b…69f1backed Yes26c1,103$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.6820447.1%96 W · 108 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xddaf…3de6backed Yes27c1,069$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.76540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b71…4e79backed Yes27c1,062$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.864734%16 W · 31 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No73c999.94$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.9820040.5%81 W · 119 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31b…edcabacked Yes27c991.61$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.7417048.8%83 W · 87 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+15.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba5a…344cbacked Yes36c961.6$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.186446.9%30 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f4d…0d5ebacked Yes27c956.2$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.17862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ec7…2b6bbacked Yes27c953.12$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.112157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x946c…33ddbacked Yes20c952$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.41540%6 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40f7…1f5ebacked Yes19c951.4$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.774434.1%15 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-29.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x006b…ff69backed Yes11c903.57$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0705…a86fbacked Yes22c886.39$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.963745.9%17 W · 20 L+5.4wins+0.15per pick31cpaid+58.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x555b…c93dbacked Yes11c860.55$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.662737%10 W · 17 L-4.1wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-45%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1a47…235bbacked Yes21c840.15$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.431323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87ec…1ee8backed Yes30c837.04$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.49955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes27c774.02$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.7838233.2%127 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes19c750$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.534628.6%99 W · 247 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…036ebacked Yes27c712.37$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.34425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-39%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b71…c4d0backed Yes27c708.3$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.242245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15b3…b15ebacked Yes27c708.3$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.241145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick34cpaid-9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x769b…2ea9backed Yes27c708.3$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.244431.8%14 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked Yes18c676.37$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.086437.5%24 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Yes26c627.96$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.278940.4%36 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe009…facfbacked Yes27c619.83$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.351353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8662…958dbacked Yes26c606.44$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.673246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7996…bbcabacked Yes27c606.2$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed No74c604.29$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.122445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7aab…15c5backed Yes32c599.5$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.84616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-66.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x611f…b58fbacked Yes17c589.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Yes27c587.89$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.7319244.3%85 W · 107 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No76c582.17$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.2677336.4%281 W · 492 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c97…202dbacked Yes36c576.96$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.711241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed No74c573.77$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.1820448.5%99 W · 105 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e88…0793backed Yes20c571.2$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.24714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-50.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7106…1caabacked Yes34c566.86$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.087736.4%28 W · 49 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed No59c550.52$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.7140655.2%224 W · 182 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaebf…b45fbacked Yes27c531.22$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.431457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes27c531.22$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.4318123.2%42 W · 139 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked No72c528$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.8941343.3%179 W · 234 L-2.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xde80…d8b9backed Yes27c527.68$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.472128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6dd…40cebacked Yes36c520.47$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.371172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.24per pick49cpaid+35.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x66cc…e4b4backed Yes18c519.89$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.621241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-27.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90c2…8c24backed Yes15c515.01$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.651464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.22per pick42cpaid+43.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x206b…3c33backed Yes28c507.21$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.552334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-23.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes26c500$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13059445.5%270 W · 324 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe33f…e413backed Yes27c488.81$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.988930.3%27 W · 62 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+30.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30d9…7c7bbacked Yes32c484.39$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.96633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdebd…a8ecbacked Yes34c480.2$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e44…686abacked Yes27c478.1$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.09580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick42cpaid+81.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf342…a5e9backed Yes17c474.95$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.4812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-76.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fc3…0670backed Yes27c460.39$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.318831.8%28 W · 60 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f6…679ebacked Yes44c456.84$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.012951.7%15 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda2e…8904backed Yes26c448.4$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb804…cd66backed Yes20c443.06$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.61520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ab7…d03cbacked Yes27c424.98$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.742138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b90…30b6backed Yes28c410.06$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.8211343.4%49 W · 64 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.