TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7b71…c4d0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
89
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: NBA, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 53 out of 100; worst Serie A at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT2245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$532.08
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)backed Arsenal FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)backed Arsenal FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$800
Will Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+37%+$36.99
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$53.16
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,400Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+69.1%+$967.04
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$470.59
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)backed Arsenal FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$286Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+147.5%+$421.74
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,471Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$692.33
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)backed Arsenal FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.64
Will Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$191.24
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$152.51
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$195.68
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$800
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Brentford FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$154
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-03-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$101.11
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)backed Arsenal FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$400
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+61.2%+$612.3
All 22 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT1752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopardsbacked Shenzhen Leopards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$160
Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin vs. Liaoning Flying Leopardsbacked Liaoning Flying Leopards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Liaoning Flying Leopards vs. Shandong Hi-Speed Kirinbacked Liaoning Flying Leopards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin vs. Liaoning Flying Leopardsbacked Liaoning Flying Leopards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+187.5%+$108.09
Liaoning Flying Leopards vs. Zhejiang Golden Bullsbacked Liaoning Flying Leopards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$215.71
Liaoning Flying Leopards vs. Nanjing Monkey Kingbacked Liaoning Flying Leopards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$426Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+50.3%+$214.61
Qingdao Eagles vs. Liaoning Flying Leopardsbacked Liaoning Flying Leopards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$492Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$492.13
Zhejiang Golden Bulls vs. Liaoning Flying Leopardsbacked Liaoning Flying Leopards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$479Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$478.57
Liaoning Flying Leopards vs. Xinjiang Flying Tigersbacked Liaoning Flying Leopards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$610Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+35.7%+$217.71
Fujian Sturgeons vs. Liaoning Flying Leopardsbacked Liaoning Flying Leopards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$394Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+64.7%+$255.27
Guangzhou Loong Lions vs. Liaoning Flying Leopardsbacked Liaoning Flying Leopards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$327Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$327.25
Guangdong Southern Tigers vs. Beijing Ducksbacked Beijing Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+179%+$143.19
Jilin Northeast Tigers vs. Liaoning Flying Leopardsbacked Liaoning Flying Leopards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$588Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$587.84
Liaoning Flying Leopards vs. Nanjing Monkey Kingbacked Liaoning Flying Leopards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$683Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+105%+$716.92
Liaoning Flying Leopards vs. Guangzhou Loong Lionsbacked Liaoning Flying Leopards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$570Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+29.2%+$166.63
Liaoning Flying Leopards vs. Shanxi Loongsbacked Liaoning Flying Leopards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$748Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+80.6%+$603.19
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Liaoning Flying Leopardsbacked Liaoning Flying Leopards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+150%+$30
All 17 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT1729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,200
Will England win on 2026-07-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.77
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will England win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$123.71
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$325Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$288.21
Spread: England (-2.5)backed England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+378.5%+$227.08
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)backed DR Congo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$67.48
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$96.08
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$410Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$410
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$132
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$130
All 17 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-44.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Serie A — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$709Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$709.03
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+88.8%+$532.51
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$440
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$288Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$288.12
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,212Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,211.56
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$392Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$392.4
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$617Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+81%+$499.29
Will US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.79
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$750Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$750
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+141.5%+$990.22
All 11 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$2,035Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,035
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$214.52
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$108
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$127.14
FC Bayern München vs. Atalanta BC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$12.26
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$100
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$170.27
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 9 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+62.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$156.41
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+132%+$237.54
All 3 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+144.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-03-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+144.8%+$123.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffsbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.