Champions League · resolved market
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x964650552b24af9edb1c6674da3d1cd5b166e50a7d6af66983f1c50c391d8575
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $230,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $230,860 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd97…0ec5backed No | 13c | 27,097$3,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,540.18 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3328…e6b8backed No | 11c | 17,834$2,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,011.71 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 19c | 12,351$2,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,386.34 | 285 | 43.9%125 W · 160 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 13c | 9,440$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.15 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +8.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac53…6133backed No | 14c | 6,050$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.7 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed No | 11c | 5,708$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.83 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed No | 10c | 5,439$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.86 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8944…41d5backed No | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…45d7backed No | 30c | 1,700$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked No | 19c | 1,200$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…b7f8backed No | 16c | 1,113$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.32 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 5c | 1,071$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…2171backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf7f…8a2dbacked No | 14c | 700$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 6c | 653$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 19c | 643.07$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.74 | 163 | 27%44 W · 119 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…641cbacked Yes | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfece…8b97backed Yes | 79c | 498.76$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.65 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff20…cf47backed No | 10c | 497.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked No | 6c | 470.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7063…eb48backed No | 5c | 469.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +156.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf70a…541dbacked No | 16c | 375$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b5…80eebacked Yes | 80c | 295$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca34…5847backed No | 16c | 260.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed No | 16c | 256$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…8982backed Yes | 77c | 251$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5282…82fcbacked No | 15c | 250$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 19c | 221.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +11.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed No | 14c | 219.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked No | 15c | 217.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -7.3wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 10c | 202.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f1…2d5fbacked No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6581…f4ddbacked No | 8c | 191.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked No | 6c | 188.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10e3…5c79backed No | 23c | 157.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0707…310abacked No | 16c | 152.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -51%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ece…7c1ebacked No | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd210…92dfbacked No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x565a…c60dbacked No | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed Yes | 70c | 138.65$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 25 | 84%21 W · 4 L | +5.9wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…d83abacked No | 14c | 137.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x406d…c36fbacked No | 15c | 136.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…daa5backed No | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e6…56b6backed No | 22c | 100.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 79 | 24.1%19 W · 60 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcf…056bbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3b…965cbacked No | 16c | 66.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +140.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d67…cf6abacked Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…71e1backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?this page
- Will Atalanta reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Bodø/Glimt reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Chelsea reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Galatasaray reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Leverkusen reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Liverpool reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Manchester City reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Newcastle reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.