TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Champions League · resolved market

Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$183,770

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $183,770 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Champions League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x33bc…37dcbacked No0c20,923$63 inLost-$62.7729138.1%111 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked No0c16,500$73 inLost-$73.511646.6%54 W · 62 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+53.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b86…e165backed No1c15,922$100 inLost-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b9d…15c0backed No0c14,000$41 inLost-$4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ca9…37d1backed No0c11,541$47 inLost-$46.714833.3%16 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-33.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x258f…b3a1backed No1c10,873$92 inLost-$9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf60a…b45ebacked No0c6,296$26 inLost-$261241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+17.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0b1…901fbacked No1c5,727$41 inLost-$4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e37…cc7cbacked No1c5,210$50 inLost-$5070%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b01…95a9backed No0c4,888$11 inLost-$11.3430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a1c…d8debacked No0c3,857$12 inLost-$11.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No0c2,702$12 inLost-$12.285424.1%13 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-35.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…bf20backed No1c2,696$19 inLost-$18.574334.9%15 W · 28 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+48.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d97…fbd8backed No1c2,300$21 inLost-$21.42313%3 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-43%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4340…64c4backed No1c1,888$11 inLost-$11.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No1c1,795$13 inLost-$13.092817.9%5 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick10cpaid+156.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdabf…b6babacked No1c1,381$10 inLost-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa10d…8accbacked No1c1,300$10 inLost-$10.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e03…b283backed No1c1,250$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x671d…f9f1backed No2c952.88$15 inLost-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94d8…37e6backed No11c100$11 inLost-$112433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-29.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.