TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Champions League · resolved market

Will Leverkusen reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,768

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,768 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Champions League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4337…8882backed Yes14c6,149$887 inLost-$886.7313843.5%60 W · 78 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes12c1,400$161 inLost-$16117322%38 W · 135 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Yes13c1,000$130 inLost-$13010543.8%46 W · 59 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad9d…f2cdbacked Yes14c1,000$140 inLost-$1407133.8%24 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes2c721.41$16 inLost-$15.642718.5%5 W · 22 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick9cpaid+165.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ffb…f7f0backed Yes15c650.73$98 inLost-$97.61520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-59.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fdd…0db3backed Yes16c582.25$92 inLost-$91.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a59…a364backed Yes14c499.99$70 inLost-$704216.7%7 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-45.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb442…bed7backed Yes21c237.05$50 inLost-$502740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Yes15c200$30 inLost-$3014332.2%46 W · 97 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes14c194.26$27 inLost-$27.355424.1%13 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-35.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cdc…a1cebacked Yes16c153.41$25 inLost-$24.55728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick19cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes12c145.38$17 inLost-$16.919966.7%66 W · 33 L+13.5wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+28%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes15c133.33$20 inLost-$208339.8%33 W · 50 L-7.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-21.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes10c123.5$12 inLost-$12.46175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-59.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x58ff…0897backed Yes15c100$15 inLost-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes15c96.36$14 inLost-$14.4516327%44 W · 119 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes14c90$12 inLost-$12.325735%90 W · 167 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40cc…bcabbacked Yes16c62.5$10 inLost-$1050%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfece…8b97backed No80c12.5$10 inWon+$2.51952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.