Champions League · resolved market
Will Manchester City reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1a780c4aeeb13d5ec847dcfc36edb1a347843590be4a5b226a46947bf3d9e51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $152,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,420 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b6f…ce60backed Yes | 19c | 18,900$3,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,673.24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked Yes | 17c | 18,115$3,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,077.73 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…b0a0backed Yes | 19c | 10,244$1,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,982.28 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…020bbacked Yes | 17c | 10,050$1,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,754.94 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…c139backed Yes | 7c | 7,503$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.34 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2271…b8f1backed Yes | 19c | 5,737$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…d83abacked Yes | 18c | 3,851$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.1 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe959…7c7abacked Yes | 1c | 3,200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Yes | 16c | 3,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 136 | 44.1%60 W · 76 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeffd…5a86backed Yes | 19c | 3,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 17c | 2,750$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.54 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,732$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.24 | 403 | 50.9%205 W · 198 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 18c | 1,590$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.69 | 502 | 47.2%237 W · 265 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Yes | 18c | 1,558$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.27 | 293 | 50.5%148 W · 145 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 18c | 1,237$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.16 | 607 | 48.4%294 W · 313 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee3…cc45backed Yes | 2c | 1,194$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 21c | 1,190$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd97…0ec5backed No | 74c | 1,185$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.68 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4347…7cdfbacked Yes | 18c | 1,063$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 998.98$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.26 | 163 | 27%44 W · 119 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec0…aeb9backed Yes | 16c | 964.04$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.25 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9a…099fbacked Yes | 19c | 747.92$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.1 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5006…fbcdbacked Yes | 19c | 684.21$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab2…a2b7backed Yes | 19c | 631.58$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 18c | 599.98$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 11c | 568$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.92 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a4…7412backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…e691backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…03a9backed Yes | 19c | 525$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d8…e72dbacked Yes | 20c | 380$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.91 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfece…8b97backed No | 35c | 376.57$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.51 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6b…a33dbacked Yes | 9c | 300$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2280…3df3backed Yes | 19c | 273.53$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb18…57ecbacked Yes | 19c | 264.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -86%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed No | 73c | 247.15$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…bd60backed Yes | 20c | 212.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…60f1backed Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 10c | 188.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfabf…231cbacked Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf277…9a5fbacked Yes | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fed…a1f9backed Yes | 19c | 155.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdc…a1cebacked Yes | 16c | 153.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 136.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 15c | 133.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes | 15c | 129.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…d735backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…9f33backed Yes | 18c | 116.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0b…c3cbbacked Yes | 18c | 109.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ba…275ebacked Yes | 74c | 105.39$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…3561backed Yes | 19c | 105.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55b…5ba8backed No | 80c | 104.41$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf196…ef6bbacked Yes | 19c | 101.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…edcabacked Yes | 33c | 100.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x687b…9e4ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…cba6backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…a03cbacked Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ab…abf0backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49e…dc8bbacked Yes | 18c | 88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4f…63f3backed Yes | 19c | 77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881c…fa61backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe835…cd50backed Yes | 74c | 70$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 17c | 67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…2289backed Yes | 16c | 66.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852f…3aaebacked Yes | 20c | 64.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +176.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa3…ea8dbacked Yes | 19c | 63.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -54%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a3…e72cbacked Yes | 19c | 55.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc5…6e99backed Yes | 71c | 49.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…6eadbacked No | 28c | 46.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb2…2bb3backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…9e37backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadd…3fccbacked Yes | 73c | 19.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester City reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?this page
- Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Atalanta reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Bodø/Glimt reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Chelsea reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Galatasaray reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Leverkusen reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Liverpool reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Newcastle reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.