Champions League · resolved market
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6299c77c24386d6f12415f519e71a5f4e6b7fa7e239167dbbb60c03171be06ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $399,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $399,939 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked No | 3c | 42,442$1,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,322.06 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 3c | 35,339$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,235.2 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…c139backed No | 3c | 31,567$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.36 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 4c | 27,165$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.38 | 285 | 43.9%125 W · 160 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 3c | 22,985$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.09 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +144.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeffd…5a86backed No | 4c | 15,772$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.26 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…d83abacked No | 4c | 13,000$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 1c | 9,772$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.86 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +11.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cb…8f46backed No | 4c | 7,000$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 3c | 6,510$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.64 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…b7f8backed No | 4c | 4,564$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.35 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 3c | 3,685$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.73 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 2,453$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 4c | 2,281$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.26 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x140a…7680backed No | 4c | 2,227$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb609…3c8ebacked No | 4c | 1,880$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0b…c3cbbacked No | 4c | 1,810$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.64 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 1,805$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.29 | 79 | 24.1%19 W · 60 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d3…dfcdbacked No | 4c | 1,785$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 4c | 1,668$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.82 | 489 | 47.6%233 W · 256 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 4c | 1,638$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 402 | 50.7%204 W · 198 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 5c | 1,566$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed No | 4c | 1,489$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 293 | 50.5%148 W · 145 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 16c | 1,409$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.61 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf811…69babacked No | 3c | 1,403$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…cd8dbacked No | 4c | 1,344$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 4c | 1,027$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed No | 3c | 1,014$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76bd…7281backed No | 4c | 945.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…93d6backed No | 4c | 910.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 850$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +165.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53f4…0e38backed No | 3c | 849.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 4c | 713.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1297…395bbacked Yes | 70c | 712.86$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x626f…cdfabacked No | 30c | 712.86$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.86 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 2c | 647.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 3c | 645.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed No | 4c | 605.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…d7edbacked No | 4c | 521.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 3c | 517.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddaa…fdecbacked No | 4c | 502.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed No | 4c | 500.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 606 | 48.3%293 W · 313 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca9…37d1backed No | 4c | 499.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x209b…834abacked No | 4c | 435$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…45d7backed No | 2c | 433.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b7…b1eebacked No | 4c | 433.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906e…e7e6backed No | 4c | 375.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde58…b901backed No | 4c | 335.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…6eadbacked No | 5c | 331.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…af3abacked No | 4c | 319.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked No | 4c | 254.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…044bbacked No | 7c | 251$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…2c0cbacked No | 6c | 203.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdc…a9afbacked Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422f…da1abacked Yes | 73c | 136.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…6d57backed Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc5…6e99backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?this page
- Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Atalanta reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Bodø/Glimt reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Chelsea reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Galatasaray reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Leverkusen reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Liverpool reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Manchester City reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Newcastle reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.