Champions League · resolved market
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf41b91fc25a18a73c39140d490812f7eab1a2253f257858d900c41c4403a6a43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $131,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,886 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked No | 7c | 35,123$2,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,448.95 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed No | 7c | 17,329$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 7c | 10,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +144.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed No | 8c | 7,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 122 | 36.9%45 W · 77 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…d83abacked No | 7c | 7,200$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 7c | 7,113$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.9 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeffd…5a86backed No | 7c | 5,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…c139backed No | 7c | 5,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 46c | 4,820$2,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,201.31 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 7c | 2,560$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.18 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9451…c3f9backed Yes | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…e00bbacked Yes | 55c | 1,999$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.42 | 117 | 43.6%51 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 6c | 1,333$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +8.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4395…5b90backed Yes | 54c | 1,242$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +371.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…e701backed Yes | 55c | 1,101$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0007…3545backed Yes | 55c | 1,087$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 292 | 38%111 W · 181 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 43c | 948.24$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.23 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…b7f8backed No | 8c | 732.41$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29be…7675backed No | 9c | 632.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 7c | 619.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 573 | 47.6%273 W · 300 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27e2…2b82backed No | 45c | 567.16$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 55c | 541.14$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.51 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a99…ad61backed No | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3298…6eb7backed Yes | 56c | 456.13$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 359.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 79 | 24.1%19 W · 60 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 7c | 303.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd97…0ec5backed No | 7c | 274.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 7c | 249.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 415 | 51.1%212 W · 203 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 7c | 249.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 637 | 48.4%308 W · 329 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…af3abacked No | 9c | 231.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 8c | 209.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a4…b980backed No | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5512…216ebacked No | 7c | 171.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x930e…adbdbacked No | 8c | 150.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked No | 44c | 125.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…6eadbacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 47c | 71.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 43c | 71.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 43c | 52.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 43c | 49.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 163 | 27%44 W · 119 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb775…36f5backed No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0212…fee5backed No | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefbf…a1a3backed Yes | 76c | 27.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…dda7backed No | 42c | 24.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked No | 51c | 23.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?this page
- Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Atalanta reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Bodø/Glimt reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Chelsea reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Galatasaray reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Leverkusen reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Liverpool reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Manchester City reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Newcastle reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.