Champions League · resolved market
Will Newcastle reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9ab6dd7ae4e157ed23b9cd1faa681f540a41fd094f6e427b094dc5c61868ace
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,984 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 24c | 5,739$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389.59 | 285 | 43.9%125 W · 160 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,181$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6f…ce60backed Yes | 23c | 3,627$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.13 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 76c | 3,566$2,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.34 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +144.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…e00bbacked Yes | 24c | 3,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 117 | 43.6%51 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 23c | 2,845$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.83 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 23c | 2,194$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.36 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 24c | 2,191$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.19 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +8.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed No | 76c | 1,792$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.85 | 293 | 50.5%148 W · 145 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…e691backed Yes | 24c | 1,425$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x711b…bcecbacked No | 78c | 1,290$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 10c | 614.41$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +156.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…c139backed Yes | 14c | 534.79$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.74 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…6cb7backed No | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd538…6415backed No | 75c | 402.78$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c2…d4d6backed Yes | 26c | 401.23$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 25c | 400.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 264 | 43.9%116 W · 148 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f51…7b9ebacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed No | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0af…72b6backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 25c | 350$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 173 | 22%38 W · 135 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 75c | 331.68$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.92 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x927b…1f2ebacked Yes | 25c | 232$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53f4…0e38backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…fd89backed Yes | 8c | 171.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 16c | 168.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 25c | 158.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…d735backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56a3…7a2bbacked Yes | 22c | 128.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 113.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 163 | 27%44 W · 119 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed No | 78c | 109.22$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…86c4backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…c66ebacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a60…a571backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes | 13c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca34…5847backed Yes | 26c | 89.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0478…3faabacked Yes | 25c | 87.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x881c…fa61backed Yes | 29c | 85.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf91f…a82bbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed Yes | 26c | 80.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…38c4backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 75c | 75.88$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 502 | 47.2%237 W · 265 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951e…82fdbacked No | 77c | 75.81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34de…2e2fbacked Yes | 26c | 67.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd85…ba92backed Yes | 27c | 63.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…0897backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfece…8b97backed No | 79c | 53.24$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37fa…1136backed No | 74c | 51.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe48f…4ae5backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…cc23backed No | 74c | 49.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca7…3411backed No | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe400…9aa9backed Yes | 35c | 45.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +46%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 75c | 44.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 403 | 50.9%205 W · 198 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40cc…bcabbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b05…c02dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…fdd1backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 146 | 55.5%81 W · 65 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…c61cbacked No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 73c | 34.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d2…0037backed No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…e99bbacked No | 77c | 20.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked No | 70c | 20.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c5…4be3backed No | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7f…70d3backed No | 77c | 13.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Newcastle reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?this page
- Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Atalanta reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Bodø/Glimt reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Chelsea reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Galatasaray reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Leverkusen reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Liverpool reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Manchester City reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.