TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe835…cd50

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
128
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Champions League, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 58 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT7341.1%30 W · 43 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 73 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$468Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$467.9
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$534Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$533.84
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advancebacked Switzerland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$147
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+55.6%+$71.5
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+62.6%+$90.72
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$240
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$389Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$388.78
Spread: France (-1.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Switzerland vs. Algeria: Team to Advancebacked Algeria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Spain vs. Austria end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spain vs. Austria: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$64.03
Will United States win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$81.69
Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advancebacked Ecuador · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Netherlands · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$177
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.5
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$85.26
Spread: Germany (-1.5)backed Paraguay · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$93.7
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$240
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.52
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$37.72
Showing 25 of 73 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT3250%16 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+47.5%+$19
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)backed Arsenal FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$40.85
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+83%+$12.45
Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5)backed Burnley FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$16.83
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$35.29
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.41
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.62
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.92
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+57.5%+$11.25
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.04
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$10.17
Brentford FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$5.19
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$22.63
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$12.26
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)backed Tottenham Hotspur FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$17.61
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT1471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+30.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Champions League — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.8
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.6
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$78.57
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$52.04
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+37%+$20.25
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+150%+$23.14
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$29.37
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+37%+$5.46
Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Manchester City reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.8
Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$17.04
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$25.56
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+69.8%+$20.55
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+127.8%+$38.27
All 14 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+62.1%+$18.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nottingham Forest reach the UEFA Europa League final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.