Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Nottingham Forest reach the UEFA Europa League final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeabc8d5733726975e48bd103fd402fb4af6177996eada273f8a2a9912d672e8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe875…0dd2backed Yes | 35c | 4,624$1,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,605.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed Yes | 54c | 2,377$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,274.61 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked No | 47c | 2,363$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,261.8 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb52c…450cbacked No | 46c | 2,035$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked No | 77c | 584.72$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.22 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe060…fda8backed Yes | 54c | 552.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 59cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…cbeabacked Yes | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 37c | 443.99$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.48 | 181 | 45.9%83 W · 98 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 12c | 300$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed No | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed No | 62c | 270$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4c50…f55ebacked Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…eb44backed Yes | 59c | 178$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.02 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked No | 60c | 177.5$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe081…1df8backed Yes | 54c | 136.2$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc062…cc13backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…77b7backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a30…b094backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 41c | 83.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…4fa9backed Yes | 56c | 71.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 38c | 66.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe835…cd50backed Yes | 54c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…044bbacked No | 68c | 51.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0be3…0893backed No | 67c | 50.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +129.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 63c | 43.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ce…5511backed Yes | 53c | 43.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe95c…bc09backed Yes | 54c | 37.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…15b2backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x945e…353dbacked No | 48c | 31.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a28…4e3bbacked Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.39per pick | 52cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nottingham Forest reach the UEFA Europa League final?this page
- Will Aston Villa reach the UEFA Europa League final?Yes won
- Will Braga reach the UEFA Europa League final?No won
- Will Freiburg reach the UEFA Europa League final?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.