Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Freiburg reach the UEFA Europa League final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47a49e4159883df0538b766d15ddb0ccbaabb7d49f4b00e053e45775d13076bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48de…95babacked Yes | 48c | 1,077$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd97…0ec5backed Yes | 79c | 676.52$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed No | 53c | 675.76$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.18 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 52c | 454.62$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.4 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 52c | 369.1$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.7 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 35c | 330$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 181 | 45.9%83 W · 98 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked No | 43c | 274.39$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.71 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5427…bb86backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 56c | 137$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.78 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3761…c501backed No | 15c | 127.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Yes | 46c | 108.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 44c | 88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a8…9c69backed No | 53c | 78.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Yes | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98c1…3d1ebacked No | 54c | 51.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…11b4backed No | 55c | 36.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be3…0893backed Yes | 46c | 32.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +129.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 44c | 29.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 49c | 23.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Freiburg reach the UEFA Europa League final?this page
- Will Aston Villa reach the UEFA Europa League final?Yes won
- Will Braga reach the UEFA Europa League final?No won
- Will Nottingham Forest reach the UEFA Europa League final?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.