TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3761…c501

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
39
Categories scored
4
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Bundesliga, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Bundesliga at 51 out of 100; worst Tennis at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennislast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT2020%4 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Tennis — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alexander Zverev Win the Cincinnati Open?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$14.94
Cincinnati Open: Alexander Zverev vs Tommy Paulbacked Tommy Paul · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$28.94
Cincinnati Open: Alexander Zverev vs Terence Atmanebacked Terence Atmane · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.55
Set Handicap: Sinner (-2.5) vs Zverev (+2.5)backed Sinner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Fery vs Alexander Zverevbacked Arthur Fery · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$47
Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Zverevbacked Taylor Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$92
Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Zverevbacked Jiri Lehecka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.8
Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Bublikbacked Taylor Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$11.75
Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Jan-Lennard Struffbacked Hubert Hurkacz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Wimbledon ATP: Marcos Giron vs Alexander Zverevbacked Marcos Giron · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Wimbledon ATP: Valentin Royer vs Alexander Zverevbacked Valentin Royer · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Wimbledon ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverevbacked Alexander Blockx · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.5
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritzbacked Taylor Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+124.4%+$31.11
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$56
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverevbacked Flavio Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverevbacked Rafael Jodar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Roland Garros ATP: Tomas Machac vs Alexander Zverevbacked Tomas Machac · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.79
Madrid Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverevbacked Flavio Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.28
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Francisco Cerundolobacked Francisco Cerundolo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.33
All 20 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked United States · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$17.04
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advancebacked Brazil · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+59.7%+$41.8
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advancebacked Paraguay · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+571%+$114.21
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+126.7%+$19.01
Will England win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Spread: Germany (-3.5)backed Curaçao · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 11 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+35.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Freiburg reach the UEFA Europa League final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.39
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.