TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$443,218
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$446,047

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $443,218 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 318 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3fd9…1ef0backed No61c98,474$59,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,684.452055%11 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b4a…8060backed Yes39c45,242$17,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,750.342100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+132.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked No64c29,034$18,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,491.42948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes39c24,229$9,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,776.241,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Yes57c19,887$11,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,593.6528345.2%128 W · 155 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2b5…4582backed Yes38c14,000$5,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,6802070%14 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Yes36c12,717$4,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,104.6448141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes48c11,636$5,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,091.564264.3%27 W · 15 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Yes64c10,325$6,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,716.9716647%78 W · 88 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Yes39c9,993$3,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,095.5126445.5%120 W · 144 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes60c9,972$5,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,009.593,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52d8…99aebacked No63c9,733$6,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,123.355655.4%31 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes46c9,658$4,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,256.742,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked No33c7,370$2,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,424.6614315.4%22 W · 121 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Yes40c6,901$2,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,126.951,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed No62c6,400$3,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9686549.2%32 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Yes39c6,371$2,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,915.051258.3%7 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes40c6,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6005461.1%33 W · 21 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes39c5,679$2,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,482.977538.7%29 W · 46 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ff…32ebbacked Yes59c5,535$3,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,271.11666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed No60c5,447$3,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,285.0820845.7%95 W · 113 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Yes40c5,002$2,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,001.238748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eaf…9bf0backed Yes63c5,000$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,849.991040%4 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-37.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked No61c4,800$2,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9285843.1%25 W · 33 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes47c4,405$2,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,336.632540%10 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Yes39c4,307$1,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,646.4815540.6%63 W · 92 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes39c3,911$1,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,385.7511762.4%73 W · 44 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes40c3,892$1,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,317.6716060.6%97 W · 63 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No60c3,855$2,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,324.551,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39f6…abe1backed Yes39c3,846$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,346.152867.9%19 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+18.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf021…e900backed No37c3,705$1,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,374.33922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick44cpaid-59.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes55c3,575$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,625.5843532.2%140 W · 295 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc66a…ed6abacked Yes39c3,261$1,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,989.132268.2%15 W · 7 L+3.6wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+37%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x005c…a987backed Yes38c3,245$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,99711354.9%62 W · 51 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0bbb…f7d1backed Yes40c3,064$1,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,838.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc551…fa51backed Yes38c2,994$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,844.496264.5%40 W · 22 L+7.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+23.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1d8a…085bbacked Yes40c2,916$1,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,749.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes40c2,909$1,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,745.9469851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed No62c2,840$1,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,756.65944.1%26 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed No61c2,800$1,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7086744.8%30 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes46c2,531$1,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,373.5640744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eca…6089backed Yes39c2,491$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,519.67333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes41c2,369$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,386.026543.1%28 W · 37 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed No62c2,348$1,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,447.995349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9d8…f8afbacked No61c2,309$1,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,408.5920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa641…df0ebacked Yes39c2,282$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,392.112100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+100.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9653…80b1backed No61c2,236$1,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,364.1120%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes39c2,178$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,328.5812560.8%76 W · 49 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+13.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x12f9…74babacked Yes39c2,128$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,298.089476.6%72 W · 22 L+16.8wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+49.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Yes39c2,105$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,284.22445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Yes38c2,073$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,280.372161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+22.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed No61c2,000$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2202948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Yes38c2,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,240650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39b0…07d1backed Yes41c2,000$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,179.96450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x468e…2141backed No61c1,765$1,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Yes39c1,714$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,045.299052.2%47 W · 43 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+59.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed No61c1,600$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9766647%31 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Yes39c1,598$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974.7810463.5%66 W · 38 L+9.8wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x70dc…1783backed Yes40c1,550$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes74c1,547$1,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.05850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffb…2d43backed No61c1,529$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed No38c1,522$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.339646.9%45 W · 51 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9616…9549backed No61c1,479$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.23366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x190d…7516backed No61c1,435$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Yes39c1,410$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.254045%18 W · 22 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+26.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes48c1,371$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.7933737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Yes39c1,282$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.055349.1%26 W · 27 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f0f…e25fbacked Yes37c1,213$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.92580%4 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.49per pick31cpaid+265.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1af3…b3b4backed No2c1,211$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed No61c1,200$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7326549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ae5…f51dbacked Yes40c1,200$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7202339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb25…f7f3backed No31c1,144$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Yes40c1,100$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6604641.3%19 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed No63c1,075$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.176251.6%32 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9212…4040backed No31c1,051$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.01933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-48.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed No61c1,040$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.46446.9%30 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked No61c1,040$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.45745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d4e…6478backed Yes74c1,018$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.06666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+37.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8454…331abacked Yes39c1,000$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ae5…6079backed Yes40c1,000$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6001070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+42.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8716…57c8backed Yes40c1,000$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked No61c976.35$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.575745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes40c963.98$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.3938646.9%181 W · 205 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Yes39c897.44$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.449850%49 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes39c877.07$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.0114447.9%69 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed No19c749.08$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.296232.3%20 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-25.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes67c661.26$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.434257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked No62c659.85$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.119459.6%56 W · 38 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes40c641$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.7648146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Yes40c641$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.7663645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed No61c640$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.45743.9%25 W · 32 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc23f…6c8abacked Yes37c630$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.9333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked No61c624$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.647050%35 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked No61c624$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.645646.4%26 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x97b3…4a85backed Yes39c580$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.23345.5%15 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes41c579.82$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.12759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+19.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0df7…1ec1backed Yes39c564.1$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.12665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf429…969ebacked Yes36c562.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.51369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.26per pick43cpaid+78%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed No61c560$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.65451.9%28 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90e4…58eabacked Yes76c520$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.05650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.