TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will SC Paderborn achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga for the 2026-27 season?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,415
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$75,348

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,415 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb437…cfb3backed No65c7,742$5,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,013.421346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-29.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x59ce…d001backed No63c3,906$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,45010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes29c3,736$1,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,664.251258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+32.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x040d…1a5ebacked Yes40c3,644$1,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,175.93650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2f…37ddbacked No65c3,568$2,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,332.926543.1%28 W · 37 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2e9…1c08backed No69c3,247$2,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,226.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3df1…72e7backed Yes44c2,749$1,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,546.21450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8191…8a35backed Yes47c2,486$1,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,307.192737%10 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+53.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed No52c2,131$1,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.82556%14 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeba4…69fbbacked No58c2,029$1,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,176.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb6d…3ef9backed Yes48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0401100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6727…2ac7backed Yes33c1,456$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+52.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Yes32c1,440$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.498250%41 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No28c1,295$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.858224.4%20 W · 62 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0dd6…5f62backed No68c1,270$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.62766.7%18 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee43…ae9dbacked No41c1,247$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.721752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-23.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c29…79b6backed No30c1,050$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.5520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed Yes33c1,033$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.461770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+41.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2452…4571backed Yes66c994.89$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.25666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+38.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf621…4735backed No63c977.43$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2b5…4582backed No71c971.6$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.622070%14 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xefa3…d08bbacked No58c737$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.09450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8de2…8483backed No65c731.85$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.06250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc905…850bbacked No62c722.34$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.852669.2%18 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd8b…63b2backed No67c703.04$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4693770.3%26 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No61c663.56$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.392142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes32c616.9$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+55.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Yes68c600$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.612729.6%8 W · 19 L-7.1wins-0.26per pick56cpaid-49.9%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xf81a…719abacked No22c582.37$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.152030%6 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a3c…4b61backed Yes43c559.29$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.961040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcab0…0d18backed No71c500$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d46…3e2dbacked Yes45c483.75$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.25862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.37per pick26cpaid+154.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa8a6…d7a8backed Yes71c425.06$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5a2…c2c2backed Yes39c422.62$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.8666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+42.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3fa…5fe4backed Yes26c418.65$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9660…8bb6backed Yes17c388$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+488.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fed…5ad4backed Yes54c372.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09c1…0ddfbacked No59c334.68$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47fb…74d6backed No11c324.46$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.692516%4 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-55.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x419f…9cdcbacked Yes34c313.24$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02d4…d26cbacked No33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9913129.8%39 W · 92 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd296…084dbacked Yes32c299.99$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.99450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No74c298.65$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22120%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xff08…79fabacked No70c285.71$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf584…2497backed Yes31c272.38$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.942100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+123.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5392…d2ecbacked No37c269.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.89812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7d8…4873backed No12c266.67$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3230%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8bd…d868backed Yes39c253.37$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+153.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8494…814abacked No71c250$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9f3…d2acbacked No10c243$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8fe…ba40backed No62c241.29$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.63545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1e0…d60cbacked Yes35c240.78$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.743100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+105.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No78c214.27$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.542951.7%15 W · 14 L-4.8wins-0.17per pick68cpaid-26.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No62c211.09$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.9450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+45%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdac1…baddbacked Yes61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9ba…cf54backed No72c197$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.84650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae2d…2bc4backed No62c190$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.81931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-43.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked Yes40c187.63$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.634854.2%26 W · 22 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+29%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x40c2…b2fcbacked No64c179.99$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.997955.7%44 W · 35 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed Yes31c175$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.7510246.1%47 W · 55 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a80…49bfbacked No60c170$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1022462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes45c169.23$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No58c151.92$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.461040%4 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Yes30c148.65$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0615829.1%46 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a10…7843backed No69c144.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed No70c142.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa23b…6d59backed Yes69c142.49$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.42250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e74…ec81backed Yes32c140.63$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.63250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+56.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4620…fd87backed Yes36c138.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1d8…cf06backed Yes63c138.1$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.1650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+38.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ff4…d735backed No20c123$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+73.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Yes67c122.41$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5719055.3%105 W · 85 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked Yes69c117.76$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.132420.8%5 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-56.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No57c117$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x648f…4b36backed Yes41c101.05$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+141%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed No76c100$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid+14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb9…02ddbacked No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb97…eee8backed No70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8956…755fbacked No61c99.98$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.994740.4%19 W · 28 L-6.0wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-24%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No41c99.26$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4014…8c3fbacked No67c95.57$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb305…a400backed No53c93.29$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x259f…cbb7backed No54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e66…1df1backed Yes47c89.25$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes33c85.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e2…2ed0backed No51c84.83$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.381450%7 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a2c…80e5backed Yes31c84$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdf5…e344backed No70c80$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29a6…6ea4backed No63c71.43$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453964.1%25 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc81a…c368backed No61c60$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.61546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes68c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.210864.8%70 W · 38 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0327…5e15backed Yes34c60$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+43.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc02c…7c6abacked Yes42c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46cb…08debacked No62c60$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.21050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+24.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea6…48b5backed No53c56.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a7…40f7backed No69c56.42$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.931040%4 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-33.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes67c53.82$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.951361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No71c53$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes42c52$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0311447.4%54 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34b8…780ebacked Yes39c51.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+36.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.