Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Elversberg achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga for the 2026-27 season?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22136d805f14980c565a9508bd6b9420d3a23c14c63a4affca103b34b39a115c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 48c | 1,104$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.56 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3df1…72e7backed Yes | 42c | 818.34$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed No | 46c | 633.7$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.4 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…f823backed Yes | 70c | 500$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 15c | 342.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 30c | 229.56$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.63 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 15c | 216.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 28c | 117.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…cfb3backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 26cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 30c | 48.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…0eaebacked No | 36c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…c61fbacked Yes | 47c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…2b18backed Yes | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…131cbacked No | 47c | 21.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5e…ff63backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Elversberg achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga for the 2026-27 season?this page
- Will Darmstadt 98 achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga for the 2026-27 season?No won
- Will Hannover 96 achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga for the 2026-27 season?No won
- Will SC Paderborn achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga for the 2026-27 season?Yes won
- Will Schalke 04 achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga for the 2026-27 season?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.