Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hannover 96 achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga for the 2026-27 season?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe47b28a861a14e025c3cf7f1c6da7fbe553f80cd5c2a8be6539a9933b201e82c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed No | 57c | 4,672$2,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,004.26 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…cfb3backed Yes | 39c | 2,140$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3df1…72e7backed Yes | 46c | 1,435$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…2ac7backed Yes | 19c | 901.88$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…1a5ebacked Yes | 21c | 729.87$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c7…133dbacked No | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 41c | 684.24$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.49 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 68cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Yes | 41c | 644$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.67 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed No | 71c | 627.74$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa184…eaa4backed Yes | 41c | 580$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 44c | 415$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.45 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 44c | 368.57$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c2…f1d3backed No | 48c | 319.08$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed Yes | 40c | 275.76$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 49c | 267$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.83 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 49c | 218.26$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.32 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 56c | 212.44$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.92 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 48c | 160$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 43c | 147.93$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa47f…571bbacked Yes | 32c | 145$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…864bbacked No | 75c | 140$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 12c | 112.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e5…63c8backed No | 47c | 103.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8778…26d6backed Yes | 33c | 101$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…d6b0backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…0873backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 47c | 98.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x994c…36afbacked Yes | 65c | 97.25$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 24c | 92.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +214.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcecf…e206backed No | 51c | 78.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 63c | 66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 61c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…bb39backed Yes | 69c | 54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…bc04backed No | 41c | 51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e0…d60cbacked No | 50c | 47.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…a5d4backed Yes | 32c | 47.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad6e…9244backed Yes | 52c | 40.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e3…7e36backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 50c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 64c | 32.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…ceb9backed No | 46c | 26.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…131cbacked No | 78c | 25.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…a6f9backed Yes | 50c | 22.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked Yes | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa36…7d42backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03b3…9a65backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc10d…7d8dbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…6789backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5e…ff63backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…0eaebacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18b…fdf2backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…336cbacked Yes | 59c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 66c | 19.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf418…75c0backed Yes | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hannover 96 achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga for the 2026-27 season?this page
- Will Darmstadt 98 achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga for the 2026-27 season?No won
- Will SC Paderborn achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga for the 2026-27 season?Yes won
- Will SV Elversberg achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga for the 2026-27 season?Yes won
- Will Schalke 04 achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga for the 2026-27 season?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.