TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$936,420
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$999,166

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $936,420 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9cb9…32f2backed No16c99,787$15,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,965.863429.4%10 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+19.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe26c…88cfbacked No16c76,966$11,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,959.34633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked No20c70,635$14,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,015.89540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+181.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4761…5ae8backed No16c57,311$9,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,169.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85e8…474abacked No15c31,369$4,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,710.7837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked No15c30,225$4,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,565.952250%11 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0336…4bb0backed Yes80c25,375$20,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0752100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick66cpaid+60.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1350…0841backed No15c25,003$3,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,848.421566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+36.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7865…4af9backed No14c10,145$1,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,420.344524.4%11 W · 34 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked No2c9,133$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.992441.7%10 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1af3…b3b4backed No1c8,023$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed No11c7,768$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.276755.2%37 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed No15c7,501$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,111.339831.6%31 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed No15c4,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6005133.3%17 W · 34 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked No16c3,944$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.04633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90e0…ff4cbacked No1c3,792$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.146010%6 W · 54 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+119.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2952…97b0backed No15c3,675$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf476…8cefbacked Yes80c3,500$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7001100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes80c3,312$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.482737%10 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid+12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No12c3,166$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.2848141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x005c…a987backed No16c3,024$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.8911354.9%62 W · 51 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed No16c2,930$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.6449647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed No3c2,821$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7753140.7%216 W · 315 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No15c2,550$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.57111.3%8 W · 63 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed No16c2,335$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.9863645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No7c2,262$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.142,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No4c1,867$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.7210026%26 W · 74 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Yes80c1,511$1,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.27443.2%32 W · 42 L-9.2wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-21.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3d91…a5fdbacked No15c1,489$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15f3…c9d2backed No16c1,300$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.97911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.35per pick46cpaid-79.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf95e…1816backed No15c1,277$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked No16c1,072$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.1848146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0df7…1ec1backed No3c1,031$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8716…57c8backed No15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed No15c917$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.5522047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed No14c869.48$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.7381732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No11c814.11$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.371,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked No14c774$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.3612560.8%76 W · 49 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+13.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed No16c729.67$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.5912056.7%68 W · 52 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No14c708.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9156951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc52…dfcebacked No16c630$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed No14c600$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99cd…8b45backed No17c600$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed No5c592.39$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.876232.3%20 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-25.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc513…98babacked No14c578.58$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef2…fdb6backed Yes80c418.98$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No5c406.36$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.233046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8490…ac46backed No17c352.94$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No15c251.5$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7262452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed No20c240$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4816343.6%71 W · 92 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed No14c238.48$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4126445.5%120 W · 144 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x059d…10e3backed No21c238.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-31.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked No19c227.07$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.149150.5%46 W · 45 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+27%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed No19c210.85$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.13259.4%19 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee5f…5468backed Yes79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed No14c199.96$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9916846.4%78 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea54…8010backed No16c189$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked No9c178.36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.534257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed No14c167.43$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4414447.9%69 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa923…6704backed No15c156.39$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.466746.3%31 W · 36 L-6.6wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-21.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd7a…7887backed No15c150$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-60.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed No14c140$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.67750.6%39 W · 38 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c96…5099backed No8c126.49$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Yes80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2518554.1%100 W · 85 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5380…ddb2backed Yes80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+55%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Yes80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2510647.2%50 W · 56 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x09d2…26aebacked No17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3211…bcf7backed No15c102.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c46…ce9bbacked Yes79c101.27$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.271241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed No15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4572…47e7backed No16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-35.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked No15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1514539.3%57 W · 88 L-9.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1413555.6%75 W · 60 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194546.7%21 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc96…08ecbacked No16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc604…5438backed No16c80$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x641f…049abacked Yes80c75$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa807…cc2ebacked Yes80c67.88$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.58944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-33.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d14…f766backed Yes80c55.95$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c94…5a2bbacked No79c38.05$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1950…1bf4backed Yes80c30.4$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.081861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a51…1933backed Yes80c28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ee6…fe26backed Yes80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+44.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…0e54backed Yes80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe697…708fbacked Yes80c24.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9710657.5%61 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes80c19.51$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.928241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd3a…9993backed Yes80c19.21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.845865.5%38 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x097c…630abacked Yes80c18.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.75580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+85.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc407…0875backed Yes80c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+87.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35d1…1f70backed Yes80c12.93$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.595350.9%27 W · 26 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x603a…6257backed Yes80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6d7…d801backed Yes80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.53141.9%13 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe34d…ad51backed Yes80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6905…d0e8backed Yes80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3761…c501backed Yes80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+35.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6949…b64ebacked Yes80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.