Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6c03235ddbfe59ce32880184c6950ca6f5f5623e8dc55126e9d1ca4f7aa6c3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x02f0…c55dbacked Yes | 10c | 2,970$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 14cpaid | +315.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 9c | 2,485$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.61 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb553…457bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,991$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes | 2c | 1,802$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +80%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…44b8backed Yes | 2c | 1,692$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 3c | 1,062$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 10c | 1,049$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.88 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…9b48backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4791…02b4backed Yes | 11c | 690.91$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…719abacked Yes | 10c | 690$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed Yes | 10c | 659.45$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.95 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Yes | 10c | 526.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…8f34backed Yes | 4c | 250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked Yes | 10c | 227$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6905…d0e8backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52bc…4e1cbacked Yes | 10c | 192$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 10c | 159.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacfc…f2fdbacked Yes | 10c | 156$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fab…9db1backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81ce…dc3cbacked Yes | 10c | 146.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 9c | 124.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…4e8bbacked Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 11c | 116.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…08a1backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…5c50backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8b…276abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf2…d272backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x202b…e209backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 27cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cc…f15bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16?No won
- Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.