Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Aston Villa reach the UEFA Europa League final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b3c1d31b69d46232dab7d5c68e10d7f0064160eb57f1fea3fe2191f69f85a95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d70…27e8backed Yes | 69c | 8,503$5,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,632.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked No | 33c | 3,618$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.1 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ce…2edfbacked No | 54c | 2,378$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed No | 53c | 2,032$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.82 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 42c | 1,894$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.33 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…bbcdbacked Yes | 48c | 1,433$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 44c | 1,277$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.12 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa492…adbebacked No | 54c | 920.88$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked No | 52c | 659.02$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.69 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked No | 47c | 637.31$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.56 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71da…bc9ebacked Yes | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 46cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…755ebacked Yes | 48c | 613.6$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.07 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2374…a426backed Yes | 48c | 596.58$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15f3…c9d2backed No | 52c | 579.99$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 12c | 572.45$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.69 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…c67ebacked No | 53c | 542.46$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 32c | 538.5$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.47 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ef…26adbacked Yes | 48c | 478.49$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…44a2backed Yes | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…0caabacked Yes | 48c | 382.83$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ac…3f7cbacked No | 52c | 320.04$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked No | 26c | 317.38$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.21 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 32c | 302.8$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.45 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…c139backed No | 10c | 232.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…cbeabacked No | 34c | 216.68$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x332d…7b0ebacked Yes | 46c | 213.43$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.25 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 36c | 213.03$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.69 | 181 | 45.9%83 W · 98 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 31c | 210.81$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1f…ede0backed Yes | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 45cpaid | +153.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ed…604cbacked Yes | 48c | 198.63$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x791b…1101backed Yes | 78c | 191.43$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4849…2e69backed Yes | 48c | 187.5$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Yes | 56c | 178.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.69 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 35c | 153.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdee9…c110backed Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…9732backed Yes | 48c | 135.42$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.42 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…77b7backed Yes | 70c | 123.84$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Yes | 58c | 119.79$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…044bbacked Yes | 69c | 109.77$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ad…fb53backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 53c | 85.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c5…f095backed Yes | 53c | 84.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Yes | 47c | 84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 47c | 79.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a4…72adbacked Yes | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3981…2933backed Yes | 64c | 62.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d5…9727backed Yes | 49c | 47.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…c74bbacked Yes | 73c | 44.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 61cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…28a8backed Yes | 48c | 41.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd794…ce26backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…ac46backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccd0…e568backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3185…ded8backed Yes | 47c | 36.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x911f…5ed0backed No | 54c | 35.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba4…26b5backed Yes | 66c | 34.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04e8…029ebacked Yes | 48c | 34.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…612fbacked Yes | 62c | 32.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97a1…d1eebacked Yes | 48c | 30.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 153 | 52.9%81 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecf…0f51backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…1e2ebacked Yes | 73c | 20.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 68c | 20.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…15cdbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f2…a6fabacked No | 53c | 19.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f4…4763backed Yes | 75c | 17.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aston Villa reach the UEFA Europa League final?this page
- Will Braga reach the UEFA Europa League final?No won
- Will Freiburg reach the UEFA Europa League final?Yes won
- Will Nottingham Forest reach the UEFA Europa League final?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.