TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xecd5…755e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
113
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 60 out of 100; worst Mls at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT5662.5%35 W · 21 L+7.4wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+75.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 56 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$211.16
Norway vs. England: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$131.09
Norway vs. England: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+118.8%+$73.75
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advancebacked Colombia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$458Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$458.18
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$321Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$144
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Belgium · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$103.56
Portugal vs. Spain: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$122
Brazil vs. Norway: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$970Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+31.4%+$304.17
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,448Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+100%+$1,448
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$418Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$356.07
Canada vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Morocco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$984Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$382.7
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$975Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+45.1%+$440.23
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,194Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,194
Australia vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$518Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$561.17
Australia vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Egypt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$573Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$366.42
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advancebacked Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$675Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+37.8%+$255.35
Spain vs. Austria: Spain O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,265Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$743.12
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$680Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$627.66
England vs. DR Congo: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$339Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+103.9%+$352.24
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advancebacked Mexico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$221Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$124.17
Will France win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$3,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$896.1
Will France vs. Sweden end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$271Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$271.22
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Netherlands · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$750Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$750
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advancebacked Paraguay · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,072Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+300%+$3,215.13
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$2,529Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,529.17
Showing 25 of 56 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT1369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+29.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$438Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$438
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$959Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$270.35
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$218Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$185.95
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$312Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$312
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$293Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$119.68
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$313Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$313
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$256.85
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$447Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$447.32
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$103.53
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$547Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$245.74
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$190.94
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$196.77
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$163.31
All 13 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,965Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$1,423.17
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$800Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+100%+$799.66
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$731Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$731
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$2,580Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+56.5%+$1,457.88
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+150%+$900
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$365Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$364.7
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$286Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$286.41
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$405Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$405
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$779Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$637.21
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,098Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,097.84
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$532Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$531.9
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$855Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+56%+$478.68
All 12 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick56cpaid+43.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
La Liga — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 20, 2026, EDT683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+33.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
CS2 — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+19.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+71.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+27.7%+$55.81
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoevenbacked Rico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$202
All 1 picks, newest first.
Mls Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Mls — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,376Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,376
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.