TailMyPicks

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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Team Liquid, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$245,771
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$270,932

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $245,771 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 180 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Team Liquid45c35,941$16,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,270.812,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Natus Vincere47c20,626$9,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,843.3154556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Team Liquid23c16,144$3,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,745.7147650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Team Liquid16c8,405$1,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,384.7850832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Natus Vincere62c7,316$4,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,793.958749.4%43 W · 44 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Team Liquid42c7,032$2,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,961.2941056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d11…99cabacked Team Liquid32c7,011$2,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,215.914734%16 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-31.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere61c4,834$2,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,877.921,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Team Liquid35c4,732$1,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,656.1829143.6%127 W · 164 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Natus Vincere61c4,600$2,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,789.1751751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere61c4,568$2,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,771.891,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Natus Vincere59c4,071$2,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,674.141,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Natus Vincere61c3,846$2,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,515.511,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Natus Vincere50c3,769$1,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,900.731,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Natus Vincere68c3,744$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.3347046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fd2…da00backed Team Liquid32c3,702$1,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,190.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Team Liquid53c3,697$1,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,962.0134468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Natus Vincere65c3,586$2,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,255.1917444.8%78 W · 96 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere52c3,441$1,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,668.061,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked Natus Vincere51c2,876$1,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,416.2836759.1%217 W · 150 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed Natus Vincere72c2,802$2,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.951049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Natus Vincere58c2,743$1,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,146.696557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Natus Vincere54c2,656$1,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,228.811,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere57c2,533$1,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.932,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Liquid47c2,291$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.5696645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Natus Vincere70c2,202$1,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.8468649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed Team Liquid45c2,152$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.6562650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Natus Vincere62c2,000$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76079959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x124e…6802backed Natus Vincere78c2,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44013068.5%89 W · 41 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Natus Vincere70c1,942$1,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.3389749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked Natus Vincere46c1,830$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99425147.4%119 W · 132 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed Natus Vincere60c1,682$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.2933549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f9…0a00backed Natus Vincere62c1,566$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.399158.2%53 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Natus Vincere61c1,465$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.5541242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Team Liquid52c1,410$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.1141944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Liquid44c1,232$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.1599844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked Team Liquid10c1,070$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.5833845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a57…968cbacked Natus Vincere52c1,002$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.8220043.5%87 W · 113 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda47…c2e9backed Team Liquid42c1,002$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.9811858.5%69 W · 49 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8041…05d6backed Natus Vincere61c999.71$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.893053.3%16 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Team Liquid50c979.68$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.5550769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed Natus Vincere31c957.99$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.011154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+33.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Team Liquid45c922.99$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.6233041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Natus Vincere50c893.64$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.6450053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa11c…e96fbacked Natus Vincere77c861.46$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.691973.7%14 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.18per pick56cpaid+28.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked Team Liquid50c853.12$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.739343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa306…a39dbacked Natus Vincere58c815.24$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.9610561%64 W · 41 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd83…7d7cbacked Team Liquid35c750$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26014747.6%70 W · 77 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Natus Vincere62c722.97$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.181,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Team Liquid2c650.04$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1336851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Natus Vincere62c625.34$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.6345061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Team Liquid48c599.99$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29156243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bf7…6d62backed Natus Vincere55c534.11$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.274845.8%22 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x39a7…bcb7backed Natus Vincere59c515.33$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.810949.5%54 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Team Liquid49c509.18$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.3214251.4%73 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd1…2812backed Team Liquid50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25011836.4%43 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Team Liquid52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26065441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Natus Vincere54c486.2$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.6546240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1994…d63cbacked Natus Vincere50c484.94$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.474261.9%26 W · 16 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+21%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x168b…0acfbacked Team Liquid61c481.09$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.3518362.8%115 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d03…9a41backed Team Liquid32c420.45$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.0323050.9%117 W · 113 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1448…b30bbacked Team Liquid39c409.77$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.422544%11 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Team Liquid16c404.95$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.731,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebcd…5c0bbacked Natus Vincere53c399.51$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked Natus Vincere74c399.13$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.8133867.8%229 W · 109 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Team Liquid33c375.3$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.8567043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Team Liquid29c375.14$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.6692056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked Natus Vincere63c355$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.3537047%174 W · 196 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdde9…f432backed Natus Vincere60c349.15$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.287750.6%39 W · 38 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Natus Vincere49c346$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.3932441.7%135 W · 189 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Natus Vincere59c344.29$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.8396245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb53a…e694backed Natus Vincere56c331.39$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.347429.7%22 W · 52 L-7.9wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-29.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x823b…59e9backed Natus Vincere73c325.26$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.896349.2%31 W · 32 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b39…7fbcbacked Natus Vincere50c318.16$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.085240.4%21 W · 31 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd8d7…406dbacked Team Liquid56c307.49$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.126152.5%32 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3d5…1fa5backed Team Liquid73c291.29$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.21560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Team Liquid25c286.12$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5343647.5%207 W · 229 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed Team Liquid55c273.38$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.3392561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf6ed…7103backed Natus Vincere59c253.64$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.411573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Natus Vincere52c250$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12088166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Team Liquid28c249.89$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7857654.5%314 W · 262 L+29.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0188…91babacked Natus Vincere57c232.83$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.123951.3%20 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x839f…c2cebacked Natus Vincere53c230.57$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.8119951.8%103 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Natus Vincere67c229.67$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.5577458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9332…a3dbbacked Team Liquid14c210.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1476048.6%369 W · 391 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79df…31d6backed Team Liquid22c208.34$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2711239.3%44 W · 68 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4969…6d77backed Natus Vincere47c206$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.184829.2%14 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb5e6…9e72backed Team Liquid34c201.72$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.36540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+40.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c07…5feabacked Natus Vincere57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8617954.2%97 W · 82 L-12.6wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4dde…cff5backed Natus Vincere50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10033644%148 W · 188 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c09…8a0bbacked Team Liquid51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1023158.1%18 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Natus Vincere45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11063032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Team Liquid49c198.29$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9346049.8%229 W · 231 L+2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked Team Liquid24c197.05$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7329240.4%118 W · 174 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Natus Vincere49c194.59$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.2461057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab05…52e9backed Team Liquid43c184.18$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.217448.9%85 W · 89 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…a5edbacked Team Liquid40c183.92$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5740644.6%181 W · 225 L+0.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Team Liquid46c182.04$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.0113452.2%70 W · 64 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Team Liquid17c176.65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0526956.1%151 W · 118 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Team Liquid44c172.37$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9261745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.