TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$273,434
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$303,329

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $273,434 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66fb…9f72backed Natus Vincere45c66,218$29,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,598.3854556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x521c…38f9backed Natus Vincere0c42,895$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68ac…3d7ebacked Team Liquid64c29,086$18,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,372.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe865…0b11backed Natus Vincere43c15,441$6,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,684.66333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-42.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3719…2df0backed Team Liquid55c12,746$7,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,695.879055.6%50 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Team Liquid54c12,355$6,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,637.7141056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Liquid59c11,732$6,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,755.331,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb66a…800ebacked Team Liquid59c8,702$5,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,567.682850%14 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Natus Vincere9c7,322$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.750832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Team Liquid55c4,566$2,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,054.6917444.8%78 W · 96 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Liquid53c4,454$2,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,104.952,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Natus Vincere32c3,344$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.1147046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Liquid58c2,978$1,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,246.1851751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Natus Vincere41c2,370$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.4296557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked Team Liquid71c2,169$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.3836759.1%217 W · 150 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Liquid57c2,155$1,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.061,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Natus Vincere40c1,775$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.71,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x421e…1e47backed Natus Vincere46c1,575$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.66527.7%18 W · 47 L-9.9wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-42.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb4a9…3d6fbacked Team Liquid55c1,543$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.579145.1%41 W · 50 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Liquid62c1,533$947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.281,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Team Liquid52c1,500$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72056852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Team Liquid59c1,452$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.9755147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere36c1,392$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.521,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed Natus Vincere41c1,206$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.3625935.5%92 W · 167 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8041…05d6backed Natus Vincere42c1,199$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.463053.3%16 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Liquid58c1,173$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.031,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb98…6730backed Natus Vincere17c1,118$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.04988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.34per pick55cpaid+56.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xda47…c2e9backed Natus Vincere18c1,111$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9311858.5%69 W · 49 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Natus Vincere15c1,068$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.2499844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere39c1,007$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.991,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Liquid58c999.99$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.9979959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Natus Vincere43c892.69$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.4246451.5%239 W · 225 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x168b…0acfbacked Team Liquid63c866.54$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.4518362.8%115 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb53a…e694backed Natus Vincere31c854.6$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.427429.7%22 W · 52 L-7.9wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-29.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x39a7…bcb7backed Natus Vincere42c823.15$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.5410949.5%54 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Team Liquid57c756.27$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.295342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Liquid55c735.08$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.3696645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Natus Vincere8c670$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.663032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x423f…eedcbacked Team Liquid55c668.16$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.1612350.4%62 W · 61 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd83…7d7cbacked Team Liquid59c657.73$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.4514747.6%70 W · 77 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Team Liquid51c648.97$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.9941944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked Team Liquid56c631.15$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.0139343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c64…c336backed Natus Vincere12c625.41$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.69852%51 W · 47 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Natus Vincere44c615.63$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.817447.3%35 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Team Liquid78c597.23$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.3277458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd64d…bcfebacked Team Liquid55c568.36$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.91258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Natus Vincere23c551.4$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.5650053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a57…968cbacked Natus Vincere46c548.01$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.6120043.5%87 W · 113 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Natus Vincere45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22516725.7%43 W · 124 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Natus Vincere46c483.76$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.8646240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Natus Vincere41c461.47$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.267043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe999…12bdbacked Team Liquid57c400$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17218156.4%102 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf84c…d035backed Natus Vincere49c381.92$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.91315.4%2 W · 11 L-4.6wins-0.36per pick51cpaid-75.3%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xa11c…e96fbacked Team Liquid54c373.99$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.041973.7%14 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.18per pick56cpaid+28.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed Team Liquid57c372$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.9645046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Team Liquid50c355.84$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.4650769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b39…7fbcbacked Team Liquid60c341.6$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.645240.4%21 W · 31 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdde9…f432backed Team Liquid60c325.11$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.97750.6%39 W · 38 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Team Liquid56c323.89$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.5555251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed Team Liquid77c321.65$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.8818356.8%104 W · 79 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere40c316.28$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1261,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebcd…5c0bbacked Team Liquid59c309.99$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Natus Vincere24c265.59$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.491,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Team Liquid54c265.37$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.0785851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x39d2…76dfbacked Natus Vincere8c262.77$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0240%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Natus Vincere46c241.08$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.944645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Natus Vincere45c219.76$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.8261745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ee9…20a2backed Natus Vincere42c218.87$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.097429.7%22 W · 52 L-8.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4dde…cff5backed Natus Vincere45c217.58$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9133644%148 W · 188 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Natus Vincere41c217.25$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.7361057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14fa…73f0backed Team Liquid63c214.18$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.25966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2fe…695dbacked Natus Vincere47c206$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8217349.1%85 W · 88 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d03…9a41backed Team Liquid54c204.69$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.4323050.9%117 W · 113 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea4…4d25backed Natus Vincere24c190.88$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.166346%29 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x523b…cd5abacked Team Liquid58c188.52$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.353661.1%22 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Team Liquid54c180.07$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.8346049.8%229 W · 231 L+2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x16d8…ba9ebacked Team Liquid57c171.9$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.388750.6%44 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8232…d12fbacked Team Liquid58c168.07$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5928062.9%176 W · 104 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8a5…26a1backed Team Liquid50c159.85$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.9311154.1%60 W · 51 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked Team Liquid63c154.74$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.9433867.8%229 W · 109 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Natus Vincere27c147.32$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3588166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Liquid58c146.97$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.6889749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fd6…9d99backed Natus Vincere50c146.75$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.37633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-36.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8165…ba12backed Natus Vincere40c137.37$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.955056%28 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed Team Liquid60c123.8$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.5292561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Natus Vincere34c122$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8769033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Team Liquid58c120$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.874549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d27…bd5abacked Team Liquid60c119.99$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6946872.2%338 W · 130 L+36.5wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c9d…cb94backed Natus Vincere49c118.7$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.16650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cc8…67f7backed Team Liquid61c118.57$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.9119162.8%120 W · 71 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a89…3e2abacked Natus Vincere41c117.46$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2330041.3%124 W · 176 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Team Liquid53c116.58$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3870236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed Natus Vincere40c110$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4467555%371 W · 304 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked Natus Vincere35c109.83$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4429240.4%118 W · 174 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Natus Vincere45c107.44$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3559556.6%337 W · 258 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Team Liquid67c105.17$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.71,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x839f…c2cebacked Natus Vincere47c102.09$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4219951.8%103 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8027…cf81backed Team Liquid59c101.69$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6913152.7%69 W · 62 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked Team Liquid54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4658152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b41…2c02backed Natus Vincere23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2372637.5%272 W · 454 L+3.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.