TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spiritof Spirit, 9z
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,329,985
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,525,754

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,329,985 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,280 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x47a8…52f9backed 9z12c125,000$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,999.9410142.6%43 W · 58 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Spirit78c110,405$85,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,425.0823355.4%129 W · 104 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed 9z32c74,159$23,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,730.8625355.7%141 W · 112 L+19.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Spirit79c65,977$52,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,914.9521655.1%119 W · 97 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked 9z28c65,000$18,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,15076058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed 9z52c60,076$31,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,131.335,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Spirit77c53,289$40,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,392.8737646.3%174 W · 202 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Spirit67c50,000$33,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,499.967363%46 W · 27 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+22%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked 9z50c49,050$24,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,729.521,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked 9z15c44,538$6,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,672.0741040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9854…6bf2backed Spirit80c40,854$32,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,354.2610361.2%63 W · 40 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf2a…5ae1backed Spirit79c38,156$30,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,155.7312955%71 W · 58 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c8d…65e7backed 9z33c35,000$11,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,5504654.3%25 W · 21 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed 9z32c33,525$10,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,728.1641649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked 9z32c30,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,599.9625655.1%141 W · 115 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Spirit54c28,590$15,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,239.5221251.4%109 W · 103 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked 9z11c25,000$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7509855.1%54 W · 44 L+8.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+27.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x07e2…4b9cbacked 9z47c24,878$11,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,654.48032.5%26 W · 54 L-7.0wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-45.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed 9z10c24,341$2,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,536.4832732.4%106 W · 221 L-0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed 9z47c23,720$11,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,155.3817737.3%66 W · 111 L-16.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed 9z11c23,332$2,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,566.5288242.3%373 W · 509 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed 9z13c22,071$2,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,869.2317643.2%76 W · 100 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6902…b4cabacked Spirit68c22,059$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,058.8225751.8%133 W · 124 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe111…685abacked 9z18c19,163$3,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,514.2117540%70 W · 105 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed 9z14c18,250$2,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,529.9842142%177 W · 244 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47b3…039cbacked Spirit68c17,000$11,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,4405742.1%24 W · 33 L-0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa927…8d9fbacked Spirit63c16,102$10,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,021.234559.1%204 W · 141 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…18a4backed Spirit67c15,888$10,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,190.6420448.5%99 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf886…2620backed Spirit72c15,322$11,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,291.0910359.2%61 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked 9z15c15,204$2,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,314.4629127.5%80 W · 211 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Spirit47c15,033$7,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,958.9612956.6%73 W · 56 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed 9z32c15,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,80011439.5%45 W · 69 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed 9z47c14,850$7,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,053.6378043.7%341 W · 439 L-21.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9732…1539backed 9z33c14,606$4,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,796.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Spirit68c14,200$9,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,543.9922354.7%122 W · 101 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18f0…3d5ebacked 9z31c13,741$4,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,278.494141.5%17 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79be…b605backed 9z25c13,522$3,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,444.256245.2%28 W · 34 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Spirit76c13,145$9,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,216.4664852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed 9z32c12,806$4,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,122.332,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc84…04b2backed 9z24c12,333$3,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,013.35444.4%24 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec14…5a4ebacked 9z21c12,130$2,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,560.84933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20ee…1391backed 9z26c12,070$3,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,131.773545.7%16 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e23…e933backed Spirit76c11,872$8,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,881.8912660.3%76 W · 50 L-0.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf679…2d3dbacked 9z32c11,839$3,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,832.7536440.1%146 W · 218 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-21.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x118c…3fffbacked 9z56c11,650$6,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,546.844353.5%23 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5257…f324backed 9z22c11,047$2,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,430.341844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Spirit78c10,500$8,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,309.9946149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d2b…afc5backed Spirit41c10,485$4,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,177.1819659.2%116 W · 80 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Spirit50c10,110$5,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,007.181,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Spirit42c10,068$4,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,858.551,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed 9z21c10,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1002227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Spirit41c9,888$4,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,811.9287047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked 9z34c9,800$3,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,288.271,15748.2%558 W · 599 L+3.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd32f…1496backed Spirit43c9,689$4,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,505.8712759.1%75 W · 52 L+12.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Spirit42c9,688$4,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,632.511,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed 9z12c9,503$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140.3717240.7%70 W · 102 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed 9z32c9,036$2,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,891.5121854.1%118 W · 100 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa453…b665backed Spirit80c7,963$6,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,613.189655.2%53 W · 43 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked 9z39c7,947$3,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,066.712,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa579…d090backed Spirit57c7,847$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,347.45540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed 9z24c7,750$1,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,865.348437.6%182 W · 302 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed 9z44c7,672$3,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,395.42,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Spirit27c7,576$2,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,556.051,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa40a…fa62backed Spirit71c7,523$5,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,186.532462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3561…d87cbacked Spirit49c7,364$3,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,731.451338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e02…1f4abacked Spirit68c7,299$4,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,335.6560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Spirit26c7,283$1,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,406.951,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d2b…2c91backed 9z13c7,274$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.0630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4e1…34a5backed 9z37c7,256$2,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,678.011346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x951f…e430backed Spirit47c7,128$3,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,750.6412441.1%51 W · 73 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fe6…7027backed 9z37c7,017$2,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,591.372152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31d1…cf6fbacked Spirit71c6,967$4,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,026.82060%12 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked 9z13c6,600$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.9914934.9%52 W · 97 L-14.1wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc714…d152backed Spirit77c6,337$4,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,471.4711949.6%59 W · 60 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9c4…7433backed 9z11c6,186$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.0913244.7%59 W · 73 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked 9z21c6,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26028538.2%109 W · 176 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed 9z21c6,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26023848.3%115 W · 123 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7248…8cb4backed 9z12c6,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7203447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e71…e570backed 9z33c5,706$1,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,882.985347.2%25 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Spirit42c5,693$2,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,278.721,08854.2%590 W · 498 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Spirit25c5,360$1,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,025.4888746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Spirit46c5,338$2,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,909.256,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed 9z68c5,314$3,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,600.631,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7128…75a2backed 9z19c5,289$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.63812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Spirit68c5,167$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,666.6748350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed Spirit60c5,002$3,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,979.2837946.4%176 W · 203 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40e8…88a4backed Spirit69c5,000$3,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,549.9817162%106 W · 65 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed 9z12c5,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d29…0206backed Spirit65c5,000$3,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,769.981833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-33.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed 9z42c4,974$2,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,064.5942154.6%230 W · 191 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x132f…453bbacked 9z25c4,813$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,206.48933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Spirit48c4,790$2,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,502.736854.4%37 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9e3…706fbacked Spirit79c4,700$3,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.6417967.6%121 W · 58 L+0.5wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc790…85b1backed 9z33c4,633$1,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5093938.5%15 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd3f…8e2bbacked Spirit68c4,528$3,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.962161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed 9z16c4,500$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.8655845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62ff…90d0backed Spirit70c4,500$3,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,364.971471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3e5…519dbacked Spirit63c4,436$2,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,623.456972.5%50 W · 19 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+61.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee80…f34ebacked Spirit71c4,310$3,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,25835460.7%215 W · 139 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed 9z42c4,276$1,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,815.1791743.7%401 W · 516 L-35.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.