CS2 · resolved market
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f7defd6e05bae23933448e40a30ad3e4c9360bb8514132b2259ce4f93821524
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 9zof Spirit, 9z
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0cc…ce77backed Spirit | 34c | 1,718$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.12 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked 9z | 65c | 1,378$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.03 | 1,496 | 51.5%771 W · 725 L | -7.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked 9z | 64c | 765.6$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.12 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…38d3backed 9z | 62c | 661.29$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.29 | 242 | 33.9%82 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed 9z | 63c | 606.55$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.14 | 835 | 43.6%364 W · 471 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Spirit | 38c | 555$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.9 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked Spirit | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 388 | 44.3%172 W · 216 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed 9z | 65c | 475$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.25 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8e…10f2backed Spirit | 6c | 318.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Spirit | 42c | 250$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed 9z | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 593 | 43.2%256 W · 337 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…3c43backed Spirit | 40c | 240$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 290 | 52.4%152 W · 138 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed 9z | 61c | 200$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.98 | 527 | 50.7%267 W · 260 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…0d32backed 9z | 72c | 199.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d8…a577backed 9z | 63c | 184.81$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.38 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461f…8719backed 9z | 63c | 159.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd976…7636backed 9z | 74c | 135.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Spirit | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 655 | 46.9%307 W · 348 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd37…e117backed Spirit | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc182…1339backed Spirit | 37c | 82.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Spirit | 41c | 77.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e46…8c1cbacked 9z | 64c | 47.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 236 | 54.7%129 W · 107 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…fe86backed Spirit | 34c | 41.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd790…a24ebacked Spirit | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa83f…b857backed 9z | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 127 | 49.6%63 W · 64 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed 9z | 60c | 17.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed 9z | 72c | 13.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3Spirit won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner9z won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 WinnerSpirit won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5)9z won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5Over won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5Over won
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5)9z won
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5)9z won
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5Over won
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5)9z won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.