TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 4 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof PARIVISION, Aurora
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$812,009
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$976,853

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $812,009 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 418 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed PARIVISION55c144,016$79,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79,861.221,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Aurora43c67,782$28,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,894.5522644.7%101 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5dab…22e1backed PARIVISION59c51,539$30,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,530.772441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed PARIVISION51c33,970$17,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,245.0611953.8%64 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked PARIVISION54c28,250$15,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,299.9680056%448 W · 352 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora48c25,708$12,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,371.0533746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Aurora43c21,850$9,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,517.526540.8%108 W · 157 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked PARIVISION47c19,706$9,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,167.0617948.6%87 W · 92 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc04e…75d9backed Aurora47c19,507$9,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,283.826139.3%24 W · 37 L-6.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-25.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Aurora48c18,951$9,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,854.5819847%93 W · 105 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Aurora48c16,342$7,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,491.8845139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49f2…d7b4backed Aurora40c15,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,0004143.9%18 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed PARIVISION54c14,683$7,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,985.896357.3%552 W · 411 L+48.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed Aurora43c14,000$6,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,98011547%54 W · 61 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked PARIVISION55c12,913$7,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,123.0113851.4%71 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed Aurora41c12,849$5,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,580.7431248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed PARIVISION45c12,216$5,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,463.3441056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Aurora47c12,117$5,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,464.2728159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Aurora46c10,985$5,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,911.843344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed Aurora56c10,397$5,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,604.7950449.2%248 W · 256 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Aurora44c10,265$4,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,743.0969644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked PARIVISION49c10,205$4,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,968.3413558.5%79 W · 56 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Aurora41c10,000$4,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,90041944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Aurora52c9,858$5,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,768.2289749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f8…d85abacked Aurora51c9,562$4,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,650.794951%25 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a86…cc01backed Aurora50c9,518$4,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,762.610051%51 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed Aurora50c9,281$4,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,681.935062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xd525…1815backed Aurora48c9,029$4,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,688.445740.4%23 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora47c9,000$4,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,776.531,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed PARIVISION56c8,885$5,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,016.3456955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Aurora49c8,828$4,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,466.0368649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked PARIVISION53c8,744$4,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,608.5632549.8%162 W · 163 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Aurora64c8,142$5,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,963.9634468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed PARIVISION57c7,700$4,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,41336248.6%176 W · 186 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf054…eae7backed Aurora48c7,344$3,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,819.7512557.6%72 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked Aurora47c7,062$3,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,709.6132652.1%170 W · 156 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Aurora49c6,796$3,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,472.371,19759.2%709 W · 488 L+63.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked Aurora45c6,667$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,666.6739343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…92fbbacked PARIVISION53c6,500$3,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,455.8527143.5%118 W · 153 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Aurora61c6,485$3,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,508.2950832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Aurora61c6,465$3,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,489.2648954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Aurora48c5,999$2,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1231,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Aurora47c5,996$2,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,200.991,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed PARIVISION43c5,853$2,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,534.1427153.5%145 W · 126 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked PARIVISION55c5,428$2,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,960.2161256%343 W · 269 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed Aurora46c5,000$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,699.9929042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Aurora59c4,790$2,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,967.0791756.5%518 W · 399 L+79.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcd65…5726backed PARIVISION52c4,717$2,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,469.3711753%62 W · 55 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2495…28f5backed PARIVISION53c4,451$2,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,352.549161.5%56 W · 35 L+0.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cd1…285dbacked PARIVISION50c3,998$1,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,998.35154.9%28 W · 23 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+15.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x468c…d7cabacked Aurora53c3,933$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,832.993764.9%24 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed PARIVISION47c3,721$1,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,749.422055%11 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb665…ed24backed Aurora42c3,632$1,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,113.738540%34 W · 51 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d16…212ebacked Aurora43c3,454$1,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,968.768360.2%50 W · 33 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Aurora46c3,449$1,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,854.951,27045.1%573 W · 697 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aurora50c3,222$1,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,614.322,36747.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L+17.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ebe…5e6fbacked Aurora47c3,146$1,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,667.2625752.1%134 W · 123 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3601…44fbbacked Aurora49c3,061$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,561.2216954.4%92 W · 77 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed Aurora54c2,894$1,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,328.0845352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Aurora50c2,707$1,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,342.2379159.4%470 W · 321 L+18.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Aurora47c2,559$1,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,352.6689341.5%371 W · 522 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked Aurora62c2,535$1,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.6121650.9%110 W · 106 L-25.3wins-0.12per pick63cpaid-21.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Aurora46c2,533$1,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,378.8122340.4%90 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed PARIVISION44c2,500$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.9979559.4%472 W · 323 L+3.7wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Aurora54c2,450$1,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,12741055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Aurora59c2,440$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.3917047.1%80 W · 90 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6373…a0b7backed Aurora53c2,348$1,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,092.8714825%37 W · 111 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-2.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed PARIVISION57c2,250$1,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,282.535151.3%180 W · 171 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9c9e…7928backed PARIVISION52c2,250$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.482937.9%11 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Aurora42c2,058$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,184.2664744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb69…cfd1backed Aurora58c2,055$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$855.0430356.4%171 W · 132 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a11…eb9dbacked PARIVISION53c2,019$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,07016945%76 W · 93 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed PARIVISION56c2,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.9949455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed Aurora42c1,931$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110.4410537.1%39 W · 66 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-24%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora43c1,915$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,091.431,17943.1%508 W · 671 L+41.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcef2…4e03backed PARIVISION58c1,902$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.081369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+20.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Aurora46c1,835$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$986.160646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cb…80d0backed Aurora55c1,818$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.1822853.1%121 W · 107 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Aurora55c1,805$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.7454246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Aurora54c1,802$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.8554753.6%293 W · 254 L+22.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Aurora44c1,786$786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00094442.3%399 W · 545 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed PARIVISION56c1,786$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00013456%75 W · 59 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Aurora45c1,785$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.4752046.5%242 W · 278 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x009b…26dabacked Aurora44c1,750$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98021144.1%93 W · 118 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked PARIVISION58c1,699$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.1661057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed PARIVISION54c1,677$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.8925259.1%149 W · 103 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x24b5…e607backed PARIVISION54c1,673$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9002737%10 W · 17 L-4.3wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-24.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb41b…36bebacked PARIVISION51c1,620$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.22138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3135…f6c3backed Aurora44c1,600$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.1612065.8%79 W · 41 L+15.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+25%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7df4…153cbacked Aurora56c1,566$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.695238.5%20 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Aurora42c1,566$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904.8547046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed PARIVISION50c1,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75056949%279 W · 290 L+34.0wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Aurora53c1,457$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.791,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf52…efdfbacked Aurora53c1,443$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.4621558.6%126 W · 89 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f46…85c0backed PARIVISION56c1,375$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76622868%155 W · 73 L+15.4wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x642c…21a7backed PARIVISION56c1,374$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.56058.3%35 W · 25 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x581f…9d8ebacked Aurora46c1,313$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.749242.4%39 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Aurora53c1,302$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.7135758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed PARIVISION55c1,300$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.0680443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed PARIVISION47c1,288$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.639350.5%47 W · 46 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.