Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x041ad66b1362b194ddb6ec9d64a5d5ec554c1fa98b51ea65efabb9dc9dd054a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof PARIVISION, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x642c…21a7backed Aurora | 65c | 1,685$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.46 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…f240backed PARIVISION | 11c | 775$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.25 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed PARIVISION | 45c | 555.73$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Aurora | 55c | 543.29$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.48 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed PARIVISION | 27c | 411.63$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.14 | 340 | 51.5%175 W · 165 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed PARIVISION | 6c | 350$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked PARIVISION | 25c | 328.84$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.21 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dde…cff5backed PARIVISION | 36c | 298.98$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.55 | 336 | 44%148 W · 188 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Aurora | 57c | 294.09$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.46 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d2…386fbacked PARIVISION | 28c | 197.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…e919backed PARIVISION | 28c | 160.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 308 | 34.1%105 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…af35backed PARIVISION | 41c | 137.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb234…1c20backed Aurora | 56c | 115.14$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.66 | 290 | 42.1%122 W · 168 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11c…c7f7backed PARIVISION | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Aurora | 74c | 93.24$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…ab49backed PARIVISION | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…0f42backed PARIVISION | 44c | 90.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 372 | 52.7%196 W · 176 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Aurora | 56c | 82.36$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe93c…76ebbacked PARIVISION | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed PARIVISION | 27c | 53.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 173 | 38.7%67 W · 106 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510c…3239backed Aurora | 58c | 37.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3da…c91fbacked Aurora | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 72 | 59.7%43 W · 29 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Aurora | 60c | 26.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague PlayoffsPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 3 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 4 WinnerAurora won
- Game Handicap: PARI (-2.5) vs Aurora (+2.5)Aurora won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.