TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$741,782
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$725,224

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $741,782 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 567 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x036e…9276backed Yes62c207,164$128,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78,913.96333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes63c75,793$47,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,075.0712630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed No35c75,342$26,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,716.566145.9%28 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdaa…8420backed No37c59,648$22,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,052.16633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No38c42,955$16,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,395.857041.4%29 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c26…cf53backed No44c37,311$16,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,326.54812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-77.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6eda…75ddbacked Yes63c35,754$22,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,345.65825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-64.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc254…3f73backed Yes72c28,435$20,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,827.022646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-29.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed No36c22,849$8,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,324.864542.2%19 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked No36c19,319$6,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,915.517834.6%27 W · 51 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes61c18,330$11,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,071.8519236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed No36c16,914$6,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,147.24353.5%23 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed No37c14,526$5,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,371.225635.7%20 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-23.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes66c12,633$8,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,3138042.5%34 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3560…1b93backed No37c12,000$4,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,391.46825%2 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-67.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x800b…0b61backed No39c10,328$3,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,985.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x09c0…305abacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d71…82e5backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+124.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x057a…72bebacked No32c9,637$3,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,130.791827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-28.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cbe…106bbacked No39c8,292$3,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,219.58825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No39c5,448$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,149.6632626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc5…7c0abacked Yes63c4,977$3,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,832.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-20.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No36c4,920$1,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,764.2399629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed No35c4,800$1,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6973551.4%18 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No1c4,790$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.921634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0aae…251cbacked No42c4,687$1,969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,968.542814.3%4 W · 24 L-5.9wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-76.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf760…bf84backed No37c4,366$1,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,607.77450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+418.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1d0…70c2backed No32c4,300$1,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,37310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed No33c4,000$1,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3321723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-40.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes65c3,991$2,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,377.35922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-67.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e9c…0e0fbacked No31c3,972$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x87e5…6444backed No39c3,808$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed No39c3,775$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,454.53175.9%1 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.20per pick26cpaid-76%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7177…ddefbacked Yes57c3,689$2,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,591.12475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+34.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes70c3,594$2,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,069.4711936.1%43 W · 76 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c3,385$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.291,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed No36c3,250$1,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.652147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+71.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3258…eb4dbacked No32c3,096$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc3…b21fbacked No36c3,079$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107.843330.3%10 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No14c2,901$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.8933313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No37c2,898$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.132744.4%12 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+143.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No36c2,888$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.5818445.1%83 W · 101 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd486…2287backed No41c2,834$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,171.94933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00e1…b679backed No37c2,739$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.48520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-72.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed No34c2,738$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.086346%29 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+25.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked No40c2,700$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.3316643.4%72 W · 94 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed No36c2,633$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.671315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick31cpaid+16%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5217…ec29backed No38c2,632$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.16757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f7f…38ffbacked No37c2,458$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf532…70eabacked No37c2,455$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.6728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-36.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed Yes64c2,300$1,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.66683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick69cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No31c2,258$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.68038.8%31 W · 49 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x755d…6accbacked No35c2,254$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.12119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick24cpaid-88.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No36c2,128$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.0814940.9%61 W · 88 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No40c2,083$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823.872810.7%3 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-60.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed No38c1,982$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.981315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-69.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xad28…1601backed Yes65c1,883$1,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.564731.9%15 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb428…13bfbacked No27c1,872$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ece…3893backed Yes61c1,861$1,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid+28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed No34c1,840$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.6728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5af9…1f82backed No40c1,690$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.26450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ee1…1801backed No32c1,600$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed No39c1,583$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6192937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-29.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x36da…8218backed No32c1,550$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.813721.6%8 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5bd…7e75backed No36c1,526$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5551735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-10.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d63…348dbacked Yes64c1,459$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed No33c1,420$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.745736.8%21 W · 36 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No43c1,406$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.854320.9%9 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-46.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked Yes60c1,388$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.394951%25 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked No43c1,373$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.22825%7 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed No34c1,352$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.59633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc28a…7978backed No31c1,338$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c3…36eebacked No41c1,300$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.961020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-74.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9a2…a79abacked No38c1,289$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.73147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick25cpaid-89.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x584b…e70fbacked No31c1,260$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a61…1787backed No37c1,251$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.441233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefc3…081fbacked No40c1,236$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.5340%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeac2…176dbacked No50c1,220$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-40.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes67c1,200$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39269634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No46c1,170$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5403554.3%19 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d50…9ff4backed No38c1,170$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7979…202fbacked Yes66c1,138$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes73c1,106$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.1311538.3%44 W · 71 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9722…5304backed No32c1,069$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80ea…ded9backed No42c1,045$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa65a…1a92backed No38c1,040$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd7…1778backed No33c1,028$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb83b…dfbebacked No39c1,020$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.85333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57f3…748cbacked No33c1,017$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e3…f4a0backed Yes63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3701926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-50.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d3e…eec6backed Yes60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.31per pick53cpaid+70.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x09d6…0fdabacked No44c1,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4404535.6%16 W · 29 L-6.1wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7ff2…6984backed No31c970.43$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd570…b90abacked No40c926$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.2470%0 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes61c925$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.057751.9%40 W · 37 L+9.1wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+50.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No6c923.59$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4413714.6%20 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Yes53c920.84$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.79156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-87.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x162b…06d8backed No41c903.39$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd2f…077ebacked No42c900$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed No38c899.98$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.991080%8 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.