Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacba549cd6eef0a34778820ef11c74bb5a977cbfbf274fcc387baabd54a88e5c

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 18, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $942,697
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $605,420

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $942,697 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 506 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	8c	45,264$3,610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,609.99	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	44,561$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.56	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	3c	23,285$790 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$789.51	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	18c	22,153$4,019 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,018.99	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd68c…fcb2backed Yes	11c	11,603$1,306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,305.6	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.13per pick	7cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	11,488$583 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$583.15	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	10c	10,833$1,082 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,082.36	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed Yes	6c	10,136$605 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$605.14	68	22.1%15 W · 53 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8295…776fbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	36c	9,987$3,619 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,618.62	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	8,500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0228…a700backed Yes	13c	7,710$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	57c	7,500$4,275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,274.75	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	62c	6,226$3,881 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,345.69	542	74.9%406 W · 136 L	+34.0wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	14c	6,000$833 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$833.04	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca88…efb2backed Yes	56c	5,823$3,236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,236.5	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	4c	5,618$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.68	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc52c…6732backed Yes	16c	5,583$901 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900.81	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed No	67c	4,980$3,356 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,623.57	1,060	8.4%89 W · 971 L	+29.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	49c	4,803$2,364 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,438.3	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x67b6…568ebacked Yes	19c	4,550$862 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$861.75	39	15.4%6 W · 33 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	4,260$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.53	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes	21c	4,257$909 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$909.25	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	17c	3,800$635 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$634.83	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	2c	3,746$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.18	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	13c	3,598$476 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$475.77	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	27c	3,589$966 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$965.94	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	13c	3,577$458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$458	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x89b8…82b2backed Yes	10c	3,433$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.34	82	14.6%12 W · 70 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ad1…1743backed Yes	15c	3,363$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5369…aac5backed Yes	37c	3,269$1,216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,216.2	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	17cpaid	+72.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	20c	3,226$634 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$634.39	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	10c	3,210$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.19	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc295…dde9backed No	63c	3,205$2,008 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,197.31	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d49…bf50backed Yes	8c	3,200$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.6	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Yes	32c	3,105$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes	8c	3,073$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked No	76c	3,017$2,307 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$710.93	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	16c	2,938$464 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$463.81	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x013b…01cfbacked Yes	20c	2,861$577 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$576.85	84	17.9%15 W · 69 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b11…a0f9backed Yes	11c	2,745$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.72	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	6c	2,661$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.72	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e40…5f04backed No	80c	2,566$2,041 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$525.11	31	29%9 W · 22 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x969a…e4c5backed Yes	7c	2,531$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.18	113	10.6%12 W · 101 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-56%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7847…fc71backed Yes	12c	2,481$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.38	43	11.6%5 W · 38 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+54.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x235e…da5abacked No	62c	2,414$1,507 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$907.51	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.15per pick	45cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	17c	2,407$412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412.45	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	22c	2,279$505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$505.4	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes	14c	2,188$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.45	150	6%9 W · 141 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed3a…9b17backed No	77c	2,186$1,693 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$493.27	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-40%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	19c	2,145$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.13	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes	27c	2,105$571 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$571.18	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	3c	2,100$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.9	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5a4…1455backed Yes	14c	2,041$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.83	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3de…12a5backed Yes	4c	2,028$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.41	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6bd…b05abacked Yes	50c	2,007$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	25cpaid	-83.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf77…1488backed Yes	14c	2,000$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.8	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-3.3wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	9c	1,999$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.54	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5884…9466backed Yes	44c	1,998$871 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$870.95	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-2.0wins	-0.18per pick	37cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c77…05f5backed Yes	10c	1,995$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.49	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8d7…3e75backed Yes	8c	1,959$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.33	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	8c	1,932$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.65	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	4c	1,917$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.4	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	14c	1,804$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	16c	1,775$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.74	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe98…9e5abacked Yes	9c	1,763$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.87	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…7b1fbacked Yes	53c	1,708$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$899.77	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-50.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2785…42a6backed Yes	17c	1,673$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.19	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6201…d386backed Yes	42c	1,664$697 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$696.88	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3e4…8669backed Yes	15c	1,645$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.21	126	16.7%21 W · 105 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed No	66c	1,636$1,078 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$557.76	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x347b…a316backed Yes	16c	1,590$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.41	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-2.3wins	-0.18per pick	26cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	15c	1,589$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.12	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbef3…04d7backed No	72c	1,582$1,139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$442.73	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+2.6wins	+0.26per pick	54cpaid	+46.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a19…81b9backed Yes	22c	1,565$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351.65	42	19%8 W · 34 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	24c	1,557$374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$373.82	826	14.9%123 W · 703 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b04…c387backed Yes	8c	1,545$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+1.8wins	+0.12per pick	8cpaid	+121.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5d9…be50backed Yes	13c	1,525$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.03	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9279…ff7bbacked Yes	13c	1,511$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.04	73	16.4%12 W · 61 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	13c	1,482$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.05	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5436…e29ebacked Yes	14c	1,429$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x552c…be63backed Yes	11c	1,424$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.49	143	14%20 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f81…e93fbacked No	70c	1,378$966 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$412.55	36	66.7%24 W · 12 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	73cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	13c	1,376$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.27	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	15c	1,333$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.11	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed Yes	6c	1,317$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.86	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc5e…4e9ebacked Yes	9c	1,309$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.75	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeeb3…56f3backed Yes	20c	1,289$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.15	41	29.3%12 W · 29 L	-3.3wins	-0.08per pick	37cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cbb…ac38backed Yes	10c	1,273$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.43	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.15per pick	25cpaid	+237.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5040…df4abacked Yes	16c	1,261$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd9d…aaa3backed Yes	47c	1,254$595 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$595.32	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc4d…bfa0backed Yes	13c	1,251$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.52	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	-4.0wins	-0.12per pick	25cpaid	-65.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xef38…02e2backed Yes	40c	1,216$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e98…a8e6backed Yes	43c	1,206$523 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$523.44	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.10per pick	25cpaid	-32%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9991…9480backed Yes	50c	1,205$603 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$603.48	87	11.5%10 W · 77 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a0f…601abacked Yes	8c	1,204$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd822…3127backed Yes	3c	1,193$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.76	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bc4…df1ebacked Yes	10c	1,146$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd11…3401backed Yes	34c	1,133$383 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$383.03	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	-3.3wins	-0.09per pick	17cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	24c	1,103$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.66	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event