Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3adca6949cb3c57050992f398977c361a3302e0909b49f19667b948767d594ee

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 14, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $375,291
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $219,185

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $375,291 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 216 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x38a3…fe34backed Yes	0c	15,896$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	89	0%0 W · 89 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	1c	11,009$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.7	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No	75c	10,714$8,013 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,700.67	209	73.2%153 W · 56 L	+16.3wins	+0.08per pick	65cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e2d…6130backed Yes	24c	10,171$2,480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,479.73	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c29…0b7cbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4268…6677backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	11cpaid	-65.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8178…dc7abacked Yes	28c	9,861$2,810 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,810.4	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	+9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x952e…9b40backed Yes	0c	8,139$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.51	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	+48%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ec0…f7aabacked Yes	23c	4,888$1,119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,119.29	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe944…5c72backed Yes	22c	3,954$870 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$869.92	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.13per pick	33cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd25b…dd82backed Yes	2c	3,215$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.8	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13e3…0272backed Yes	16c	3,151$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	+40.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4d…bfa0backed Yes	20c	3,000$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	-4.0wins	-0.12per pick	25cpaid	-65.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9f0e…f35dbacked Yes	11c	2,910$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.1	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	23cpaid	-76.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfbb…9e7cbacked Yes	14c	2,570$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.1	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+62.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	24c	2,425$577 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$577	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,365$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.68	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4d6…20f7backed Yes	28c	2,282$636 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$636.04	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes	16c	2,172$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.7	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked No	72c	2,000$1,440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$560	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c32…377fbacked Yes	21c	2,000$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	3c	2,000$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	177	9%16 W · 161 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-70.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf77…1488backed Yes	17c	1,640$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.24	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-3.3wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb73…8890backed Yes	7c	1,500$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	8c	1,445$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.2	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c04…7031backed Yes	26c	1,370$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.2	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	20c	1,348$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.66	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	1,341$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.61	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b7b…a88dbacked Yes	26c	1,272$327 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327	44	36.4%16 W · 28 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	20c	1,119$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes	24c	1,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	17c	1,000$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f3f…3dc7backed Yes	30c	1,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	18cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9279…ff7bbacked Yes	19c	1,000$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.6	73	16.4%12 W · 61 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd74d…ff5ebacked No	73c	999.94$730 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$269.98	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x62d7…7e85backed Yes	18c	997.77$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.38	89	7.9%7 W · 82 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xadb7…90b5backed Yes	20c	970$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.4	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5713…e818backed Yes	2c	921.2$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc9…f722backed Yes	23c	869.57$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	78c	845.13$656 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188.93	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa724…06c4backed Yes	16c	839.59$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a78…b918backed Yes	28c	836$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.08	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6201…d386backed Yes	25c	800$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c87…b2c6backed Yes	14c	800$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	+42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c91…55d2backed Yes	25c	800$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197	42	35.7%15 W · 27 L	+3.2wins	+0.08per pick	28cpaid	+26.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9973…bc03backed Yes	24c	795.67$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.32	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	12c	750$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b1a…ee7bbacked Yes	15c	689.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d02…220abacked Yes	21c	666.67$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	84	14.3%12 W · 72 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc924…3375backed Yes	17c	637.68$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.03	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f21…fa6dbacked Yes	24c	619.4$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.2wins	+0.20per pick	30cpaid	+93%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked No	74c	612.88$454 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$158.65	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7de…ea41backed Yes	27c	612.7$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.66	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb521…22ccbacked Yes	26c	600$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.22per pick	47cpaid	-67.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x328b…a089backed Yes	22c	560$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.2	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	17cpaid	-65.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x111d…85f7backed Yes	2c	557.08$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5364…c64dbacked No	74c	550$407 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$143	151	64.9%98 W · 53 L	+10.2wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	75c	500.25$377 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.59	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Yes	26c	500$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	18cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes	13c	500$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	74	45.9%34 W · 40 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6261…e04dbacked Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	78c	483.46$379 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.99	315	65.1%205 W · 110 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	65cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3ebf…97f4backed Yes	22c	454.55$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	16c	450$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.5	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a33…28e8backed Yes	28c	449.67$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.07	39	15.4%6 W · 33 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Yes	23c	434.78$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	94	20.2%19 W · 75 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e8…df4dbacked Yes	27c	413$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.51	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-3.4wins	-0.18per pick	39cpaid	-60%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa772…b18cbacked Yes	27c	400$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca12…ea03backed Yes	16c	400$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	+2.7wins	+0.14per pick	17cpaid	+195.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	25c	400$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	14c	400$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f0e…c60cbacked Yes	18c	391.9$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c16…dd84backed Yes	26c	384.62$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e05…0d64backed Yes	19c	377.78$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	17cpaid	-88.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5d4…e7f7backed Yes	13c	375.12$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-51%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf07…4b64backed Yes	22c	363.64$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x68c9…4c60backed Yes	28c	357.14$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	87	42.5%37 W · 50 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	25c	351$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.66	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a96…7508backed Yes	12c	330.77$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	41	14.6%6 W · 35 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dff…49cebacked Yes	10c	329.01$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.46	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	17c	324.77$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.66	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6078…a677backed Yes	8c	322.77$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	38	15.8%6 W · 32 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4839…6d90backed Yes	16c	320$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.5	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-74.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8a2…c111backed Yes	25c	320$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedfd…bc3ebacked Yes	16c	313.6$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-2.2wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2ab…97a4backed Yes	26c	307.69$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-3.5wins	-0.15per pick	32cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x16a1…838fbacked Yes	15c	300$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	13cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe98…9e5abacked Yes	19c	300$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e3…49fabacked Yes	21c	288$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.24	67	14.9%10 W · 57 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+95.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes	12c	274.79$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.84	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	-8.0wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd11…3401backed Yes	20c	253.64$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	-3.3wins	-0.09per pick	17cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21b2…b602backed Yes	15c	250$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.13per pick	30cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18f4…f89fbacked Yes	22c	250$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes	27c	245.76$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.88	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb637…4c42backed Yes	15c	240$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.1	43	32.6%14 W · 29 L	+3.3wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b50…d74dbacked Yes	13c	230.77$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed No	79c	229.98$183 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.2	181	63%114 W · 67 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes	26c	228.15$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	147	18.4%27 W · 120 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x347b…a316backed Yes	23c	220$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.5	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-2.3wins	-0.18per pick	26cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event