Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d81fe68cf912450a3b8d1a0fe5e9f36ae58604c6c6d7563c1ca57b912897f3b

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 15, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $366,079
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $128,298

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $366,079 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x77ef…9f6abacked Yes	0c	30,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+2.3wins	+0.09per pick	19cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x38a3…fe34backed Yes	0c	23,712$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.71	89	0%0 W · 89 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4268…6677backed Yes	0c	8,689$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	11cpaid	-65.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No	79c	5,377$4,242 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,135.7	209	73.2%153 W · 56 L	+16.3wins	+0.08per pick	65cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	4,651$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.41	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4d…bfa0backed Yes	20c	4,650$930 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$930	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	-4.0wins	-0.12per pick	25cpaid	-65.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	4,643$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.74	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes	23c	4,277$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000.48	53	11.3%6 W · 47 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	1c	4,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a10…7843backed Yes	1c	3,370$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.28	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	21c	3,341$702 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$701.93	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f4…28e6backed Yes	19c	2,956$562 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$561.69	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x720f…0aabbacked Yes	1c	2,885$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3839…5f3ebacked Yes	1c	2,500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	38	21.1%8 W · 30 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	15cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f3f…3dc7backed Yes	19c	2,390$454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$454.04	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	18cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Yes	19c	2,111$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	177	9%16 W · 161 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-70.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	4c	2,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c32…377fbacked Yes	18c	2,000$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.85	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	17c	1,939$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c29…0b7cbacked Yes	1c	1,741$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	1,720$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.61	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	17c	1,617$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.7	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf77…1488backed Yes	21c	1,600$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-3.3wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	2c	1,500$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb73…8890backed Yes	7c	1,500$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb04…3ce1backed Yes	5c	1,300$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.44	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-54.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f83…fcfdbacked Yes	4c	1,091$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.66	25	24%6 W · 19 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	19c	1,066$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.35	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe98…9e5abacked Yes	4c	1,023$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd25b…dd82backed Yes	1c	1,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9279…ff7bbacked Yes	21c	1,000$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.69	73	16.4%12 W · 61 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2616…8d3cbacked Yes	21c	1,000$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	30	40%12 W · 18 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc25a…f814backed Yes	15c	999.59$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.44	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes	7c	934.35$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.59	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c91…55d2backed Yes	22c	900$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198	42	35.7%15 W · 27 L	+3.2wins	+0.08per pick	28cpaid	+26.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	79c	899.97$711 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188.99	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x62d7…7e85backed Yes	21c	814.83$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171	89	7.9%7 W · 82 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	19c	790.58$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d02…220abacked Yes	20c	756.67$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	84	14.3%12 W · 72 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	13c	750$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.5	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb637…4c42backed Yes	18c	740$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.2	43	32.6%14 W · 29 L	+3.3wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9973…bc03backed Yes	19c	709.99$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.7	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	23c	663.04$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x328b…a089backed Yes	20c	600$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	17cpaid	-65.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f0e…c60cbacked Yes	24c	583.33$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e26…e972backed Yes	17c	579.78$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	-4.6wins	-0.09per pick	23cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5713…e818backed Yes	7c	541.65$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e40…5f04backed Yes	19c	526.32$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	31	29%9 W · 22 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbed8…fd44backed Yes	21c	514.29$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	28cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa724…06c4backed Yes	17c	500$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Yes	18c	499.98$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	18cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	19c	498.62$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.74	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Yes	20c	493.42$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	94	20.2%19 W · 75 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f0e…f35dbacked Yes	16c	465.49$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.52	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	23cpaid	-76.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	22c	464.83$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a33…28e8backed Yes	19c	449.97$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.49	39	15.4%6 W · 33 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b1a…ee7bbacked Yes	23c	442.62$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05f8…decebacked Yes	19c	412.3$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x111d…85f7backed Yes	6c	407.5$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.45	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	6c	400$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.1	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f74…ffdabacked Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	10cpaid	+436.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca12…ea03backed Yes	22c	400$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	+2.7wins	+0.14per pick	17cpaid	+195.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x89c7…3ff0backed Yes	20c	400$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7847…fc71backed Yes	18c	400$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	43	11.6%5 W · 38 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+54.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	38	15.8%6 W · 32 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e05…0d64backed Yes	18c	388.89$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	17cpaid	-88.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes	13c	377.06$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.32	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	-8.0wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	3c	368.6$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.06	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cc6…8e7bbacked Yes	17c	365$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.75	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c9…4c60backed Yes	22c	359.61$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	87	42.5%37 W · 50 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	79c	349.98$278 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.16	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbae0…5cd6backed Yes	18c	336.28$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.48	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes	21c	333.91$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	147	18.4%27 W · 120 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xed3f…ab1cbacked Yes	18c	330.84$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.23	40	27.5%11 W · 29 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e3…49fabacked Yes	19c	323.53$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.34	67	14.9%10 W · 57 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+95.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e00…adf9backed Yes	17c	300$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.7wins	-0.17per pick	37cpaid	-73.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x16a1…838fbacked Yes	15c	300$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	13cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	21c	300$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	83	14.5%12 W · 71 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x271b…d4b0backed Yes	7c	300$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.3	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3c2…1398backed Yes	5c	299.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9be0…7491backed Yes	17c	294.12$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4839…6d90backed Yes	18c	290$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.6	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-74.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…a22abacked Yes	15c	280$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.3	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ab…97a4backed Yes	12c	273.03$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.24	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-3.5wins	-0.15per pick	32cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd11…3401backed Yes	19c	263.74$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	-3.3wins	-0.09per pick	17cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed Yes	9c	250$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	98	16.3%16 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18f4…f89fbacked Yes	18c	250$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x36f4…7518backed Yes	21c	234.72$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.92	69	30.4%21 W · 48 L	-3.1wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7707…4fcbbacked Yes	7c	230$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6078…a677backed Yes	17c	223.39$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	38	15.8%6 W · 32 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8a2…c111backed Yes	21c	214.29$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2166…72fcbacked Yes	19c	210.53$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-2.7wins	-0.15per pick	32cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d28…ad63backed Yes	21c	210$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e49…936bbacked Yes	17c	205.88$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	19c	204.91$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.52	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x28b3…7af3backed Yes	17c	200.55$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.6	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-2.4wins	-0.10per pick	18cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2cef…0d49backed Yes	22c	200$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x13e1…0805backed Yes	18c	200$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-71.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event