Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf90853ed9b9cf4718c501f1443756e775be8e01298ed9163777b47ea78130137

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 18, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $717,624
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $306,328

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $717,624 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	165,495$1,408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,408.32	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	0c	29,795$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.1	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6d…d787backed Yes	0c	25,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	7c	22,968$1,590 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,589.64	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	3c	18,381$627 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$626.77	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	17,933$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.93	241	1.7%4 W · 237 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+672.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc52c…6732backed Yes	4c	11,871$495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$495	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	10,958$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	0c	10,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	11c	10,000$1,065 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,065.23	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	0c	9,887$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.77	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	0c	9,799$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.94	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	11c	9,221$1,024 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,024.38	695	15.7%109 W · 586 L	-17.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	8,818$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.25	2,181	3.9%85 W · 2,096 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	8,506$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.1	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	3c	7,861$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.75	570	17.4%99 W · 471 L	+18.2wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	5c	7,290$348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$347.83	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	1c	7,020$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.8	456	11.6%53 W · 403 L	+8.1wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	6,911$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.69	1,799	7.4%133 W · 1,666 L	-24.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed Yes	5c	6,434$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.13	68	22.1%15 W · 53 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	6,343$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.69	1,083	8.2%89 W · 994 L	+28.5wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d3…9249backed Yes	8c	2,902$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.08	52	7.7%4 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a19…81b9backed Yes	10c	2,607$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	42	19%8 W · 34 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes	3c	2,601$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.07	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	3c	2,350$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.8	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes	4c	2,264$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	7c	2,096$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8423…b93dbacked Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	36	16.7%6 W · 30 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-44.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0de0…0884backed Yes	4c	1,753$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-61.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	11c	1,731$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.78	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	11c	1,600$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	9c	1,406$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.65	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3e4…8669backed Yes	11c	1,350$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.5	126	16.7%21 W · 105 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2635…41aebacked Yes	6c	1,300$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.5	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-80%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	11c	1,236$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d28…ad63backed Yes	7c	1,200$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.75	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadab…2f80backed Yes	8c	1,073$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.03	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	3c	1,003$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.74	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	8c	1,000$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.7	789	8.7%69 W · 720 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9279…ff7bbacked Yes	5c	1,000$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	73	16.4%12 W · 61 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x931d…dd7abacked Yes	10c	971.24$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.78	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	971$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x663a…5c51backed Yes	7c	908.44$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xacf0…0274backed Yes	6c	902.92$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.69	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.17per pick	23cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11de…21d7backed Yes	11c	837$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.84	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	36cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62d7…7e85backed Yes	7c	823.7$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.74	89	7.9%7 W · 82 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes	4c	735.03$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	103	35.9%37 W · 66 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	+108%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	1c	733.05$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x85bc…c23fbacked Yes	4c	687.9$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.3wins	+0.16per pick	9cpaid	+54.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	5c	661.15$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.84	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3113…9943backed Yes	9c	634.08$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.78	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	+44.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4841…a4b1backed Yes	10c	600$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.6	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x471e…b99abacked Yes	6c	600$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes	9c	599.41$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	53	11.3%6 W · 47 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	8c	562.11$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.08	265	13.6%36 W · 229 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70ed…2366backed Yes	12c	545.4$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	+149.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb179…8cf4backed Yes	4c	520$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.72	20	5%1 W · 19 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-86.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3de…12a5backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.46	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec05…b328backed Yes	10c	499.98$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf86…7d31backed Yes	5c	491$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.45	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+3.8wins	+0.17per pick	10cpaid	+196.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x70be…2c90backed Yes	11c	455.16$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.93	40	30%12 W · 28 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	4c	452.37$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	391	4.6%18 W · 373 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes	12c	433.28$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	468	21.2%99 W · 369 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	6c	430$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.88	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x261b…b32bbacked Yes	12c	420$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-60.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b91…f577backed Yes	11c	399.99$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.4	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	19cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f74…ffdabacked Yes	4c	384.33$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.77	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	10cpaid	+436.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	11c	380.71$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0b9…0354backed Yes	5c	360$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.48	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc6ae…d19cbacked Yes	6c	350.88$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	35%7 W · 13 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfb…da4abacked Yes	8c	341.03$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc5e…4e9ebacked Yes	11c	331.79$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.49	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x369d…a2d2backed Yes	15c	331.13$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e73…9e30backed Yes	9c	311.01$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.99	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae00…f7b0backed Yes	4c	300$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	62	43.5%27 W · 35 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-16%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97c7…37adbacked Yes	11c	299.99$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	19cpaid	-62%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9973…bc03backed Yes	12c	299.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.5	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	10c	296.86$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.77	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9be0…7491backed Yes	9c	290.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12cc…275dbacked Yes	7c	289.7$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.76	128	18.8%24 W · 104 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a54…7663backed Yes	8c	263.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	109	23.9%26 W · 83 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c58…b15cbacked Yes	4c	250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	45	6.7%3 W · 42 L	-4.3wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x48f5…e40dbacked Yes	11c	240.73$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.24	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	6cpaid	+103%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34e5…7dd4backed Yes	13c	240$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05cf…e6f8backed Yes	12c	205.74$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc622…8f86backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	50	24%12 W · 38 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	11c	200$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b7d4backed Yes	6c	200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	16cpaid	+242.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…568ebacked Yes	10c	199.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	39	15.4%6 W · 33 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x637b…5c6bbacked Yes	9c	199.98$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…2a57backed Yes	12c	186.67$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.32	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a96…7508backed Yes	11c	184.54$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	41	14.6%6 W · 35 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes	12c	184$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.16	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7795…1db8backed Yes	11c	183.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66d1…d734backed Yes	7c	181.82$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf760…bf84backed Yes	11c	179.15$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c60…b0ccbacked Yes	11c	178.68$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3fa…af3abacked Yes	7c	172.62$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-3.6wins	-0.21per pick	39cpaid	-74%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf37b…4edabacked Yes	9c	118.55$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.21	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x392a…6bbabacked Yes	12c	116$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.46	93	24.7%23 W · 70 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event