Movies · resolved market
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02930756a6d4c748375d4a95cf52193597f1727ac95b65cdd505e6153be06855
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $276,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $276,092 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 253 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 80c | 6,381$5,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,284.61 | 486 | 36%175 W · 311 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…4bb0backed No | 6c | 5,763$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.67 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…6b9fbacked No | 0c | 5,289$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…34bcbacked No | 5c | 5,246$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +127.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aec…b4cebacked No | 5c | 5,019$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed No | 5c | 4,849$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 3c | 4,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 5c | 3,203$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.92 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed No | 9c | 3,200$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 7c | 3,075$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 6c | 2,776$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.1 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…68fabacked No | 6c | 2,727$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x115a…e4a6backed No | 14c | 2,715$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 4c | 2,715$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.45 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 12c | 2,672$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.62 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 6c | 2,610$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.25 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecc…ba0bbacked No | 5c | 1,670$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd4…c0febacked No | 9c | 1,670$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf6…5d16backed No | 4c | 1,542$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…6bc3backed No | 16c | 1,500$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…f3dcbacked No | 30c | 1,241$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.75 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb76…0ef4backed No | 4c | 1,214$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0b…1ac1backed No | 4c | 1,201$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…1dc7backed No | 4c | 1,195$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b92…f4c6backed No | 32c | 1,184$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.88 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 44cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c93…9562backed No | 5c | 1,090$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb2…0912backed No | 4c | 1,081$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba92…ed96backed No | 5c | 1,033$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 5c | 1,011$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…02e9backed No | 5c | 974$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cef…656cbacked No | 5c | 951$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42fe…d6f4backed No | 4c | 948$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 23c | 929.24$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.08 | 235 | 30.6%72 W · 163 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked No | 21c | 929$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.09 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 922.81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.43 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…51b1backed No | 5c | 911.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc2…2f88backed No | 4c | 910$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7bb…4725backed No | 5c | 909.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f7…34a5backed No | 4c | 907$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…0cd8backed No | 6c | 895.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…6853backed Yes | 73c | 890$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.3 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc973…5d9dbacked No | 4c | 875$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…1f07backed Yes | 73c | 864$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.28 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbd…1288backed No | 21c | 836.97$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.76 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b11…6230backed No | 4c | 811$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…09dcbacked No | 27c | 778$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.06 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd103…dc55backed No | 5c | 763.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 5c | 731.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…5e3abacked No | 19c | 726.62$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.49 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfc…e387backed No | 10c | 721.13$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes | 78c | 710.64$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.5 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf397…e1dabacked No | 50c | 700$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3374…ebdfbacked No | 5c | 700$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…75e7backed No | 27c | 695$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.65 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.21per pick | 45cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed No | 30c | 687$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.1 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…ab94backed Yes | 73c | 685$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…f00ebacked Yes | 69c | 681.84$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.37 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…2906backed No | 5c | 678$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8669…7111backed No | 30c | 671$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 38cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…6cb4backed No | 27c | 653$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.31 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…3c25backed Yes | 68c | 651$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.32 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 6c | 644.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 91 | 4.4%4 W · 87 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 8c | 635.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…f4d1backed No | 31c | 631$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.72 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd65b…b7dcbacked No | 4c | 630$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…46cebacked No | 31c | 623$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…cd55backed No | 27c | 615$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.05 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +21%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked No | 5c | 599.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 6c | 596.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d75…78b9backed Yes | 38c | 589.05$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.55 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes | 73c | 578$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.06 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…f199backed Yes | 70c | 568$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.4 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed No | 27c | 563$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.01 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1474…f1d1backed No | 5c | 562$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 6c | 561.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 3c | 552.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8507…7f61backed No | 18c | 533$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 4c | 531.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b01…01dcbacked No | 4c | 527$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 79c | 523$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.83 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…8cf7backed Yes | 68c | 502$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.64 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaece…87f3backed No | 20c | 501.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf298…12f8backed Yes | 73c | 499$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.73 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed No | 32c | 490.69$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.02 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 67c | 477.3$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.2 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 75c | 475.69$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.34 | 368 | 38.3%141 W · 227 L | -19.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed No | 32c | 472$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.04 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06cd…e124backed Yes | 69c | 452$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.12 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0956…9aa4backed Yes | 68c | 445$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe335…cd12backed No | 27c | 433$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.91 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 70c | 431$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.3 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf62b…844abacked No | 24c | 424.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…ba85backed No | 32c | 423$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.36 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…3e62backed Yes | 73c | 412$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.24 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked Yes | 79c | 406$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6d…37debacked No | 4c | 393$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 14c | 384.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…09a9backed Yes | 69c | 370$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.7 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked No | 6c | 362.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Blue Moon win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Marty Supreme win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Rental Family win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sentimental Value win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Secret Agent win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Weapons win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.