Movies · resolved market
Will Marty Supreme win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b0dd7a1bb27d963ceeef614d737c3d73a75c270454889f2cde59836d4edc119
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,197 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4617…c683backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 3c | 4,070$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 3,813$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.28 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Yes | 7c | 3,000$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42ae…bd84backed Yes | 7c | 2,835$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 2c | 2,540$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 1,710$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.49 | 89 | 4.5%4 W · 85 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,694$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 41 | 0%0 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ea…f25fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,555$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,500$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.76 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 9c | 1,351$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.41 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,238$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0c…2f87backed Yes | 1c | 1,147$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0235…7be8backed Yes | 3c | 1,108$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 2c | 1,020$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21a1…2f95backed Yes | 2c | 999.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…52f9backed Yes | 12c | 992$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f17…52d0backed Yes | 2c | 934$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 879.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…49f3backed Yes | 12c | 879$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 722.13$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234a…cbffbacked Yes | 12c | 688$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.56 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked Yes | 13c | 683$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.79 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed Yes | 2c | 680$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc2…f8aabacked Yes | 3c | 652.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…7a4abacked Yes | 2c | 558.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 3c | 553.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa749…6a65backed Yes | 8c | 524.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13b5…e2d1backed Yes | 19c | 513.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 2c | 505.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb04e…d4aabacked Yes | 10c | 484.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 431.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 210 | 9.5%20 W · 190 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…eae0backed No | 73c | 342$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.34 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…87d1backed Yes | 3c | 317.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 5c | 306.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…0451backed No | 68c | 291$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…e864backed No | 68c | 285$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x130f…fc43backed Yes | 33c | 272$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…6bc3backed Yes | 5c | 268$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460d…6232backed Yes | 36c | 260$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c2e0backed Yes | 27c | 259$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 23c | 250.12$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 183 | 44.3%81 W · 102 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d5f6backed Yes | 32c | 243$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7780…a743backed Yes | 9c | 230.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59f3…a7fabacked No | 68c | 226$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…fc54backed Yes | 32c | 206$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 9c | 199.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06cd…e124backed No | 67c | 198$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.34 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddf7…5122backed No | 66c | 194$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…fa2abacked Yes | 34c | 187$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…395ebacked Yes | 11c | 176$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…e442backed No | 64c | 174$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeff6…80e1backed Yes | 6c | 171.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6499…05d2backed No | 67c | 163$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.79 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked Yes | 12c | 158$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…f484backed Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…1ec9backed Yes | 8c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed Yes | 33c | 149$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…4018backed Yes | 32c | 140$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…98b4backed Yes | 9c | 136.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…5945backed Yes | 7c | 135.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x667f…8c3ebacked No | 68c | 135$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 130.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 9c | 129.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…bf21backed Yes | 32c | 129$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked No | 73c | 125$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf049…29fdbacked Yes | 33c | 125$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f91…d531backed Yes | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf397…e1dabacked Yes | 11c | 118.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…aa3cbacked Yes | 32c | 117$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…d947backed Yes | 34c | 110$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf8…c7afbacked No | 66c | 110$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168e…aa56backed Yes | 35c | 108$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 11c | 104$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed No | 67c | 103$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeac…95c6backed No | 65c | 102$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…333fbacked No | 67c | 102$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…088ebacked Yes | 33c | 102$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 4.5%3 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…7bd2backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4984…69d2backed Yes | 32c | 99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…5cd6backed Yes | 26c | 98.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…71b6backed No | 75c | 97.24$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…8919backed Yes | 33c | 88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed Yes | 32c | 85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 21c | 82.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked No | 67c | 74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x358d…7602backed No | 64c | 74$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 78c | 68.73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed Yes | 34c | 67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…b461backed No | 68c | 66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a7a9backed Yes | 32c | 66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x787a…a54dbacked No | 67c | 62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -5.3wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…8191backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xccf8…ded2backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be1…cb56backed No | 68c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +65%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…7577backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 33c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Marty Supreme win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Blue Moon win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Rental Family win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sentimental Value win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will The Secret Agent win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Weapons win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.