Movies · resolved market
Will Sentimental Value win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06c4d9758efa3f60130856d5de044d3dded03ffeed7d8d8293d3a1074d483efa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,899 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 4c | 9,590$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.34 | 69 | 17.4%12 W · 57 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 4,973$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 11c | 3,250$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.26 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 5c | 2,617$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.24 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd542…1b20backed Yes | 3c | 2,391$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa871…bb73backed Yes | 3c | 2,354$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…9466backed Yes | 3c | 2,310$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…2cdabacked Yes | 3c | 1,850$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x787d…b46dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,747$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0926…4624backed Yes | 3c | 1,708$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddde…2e88backed Yes | 1c | 1,670$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7d…ba41backed Yes | 3c | 1,656$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 1,628$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.61 | 89 | 4.5%4 W · 85 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e3…0c9fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,589$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,525$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 41 | 0%0 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4c…d249backed Yes | 2c | 1,437$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d0…6d0bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,399$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b76…acaabacked Yes | 3c | 1,364$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe446…b1b9backed Yes | 3c | 1,351$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x863e…1424backed Yes | 3c | 1,316$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x115a…e4a6backed Yes | 12c | 1,315$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.75 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…7065backed Yes | 3c | 1,303$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…7c47backed Yes | 3c | 1,274$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bb…594dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,259$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed7b…f6f3backed Yes | 3c | 1,178$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe81e…3640backed Yes | 9c | 1,068$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35c…b0cabacked Yes | 3c | 1,003$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7874…8d9ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 1c | 970.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…dfcfbacked Yes | 2c | 963.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58d0…52ddbacked Yes | 3c | 950$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 925.41$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5078…992cbacked Yes | 2c | 891.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 21c | 877$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.5 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1474…f1d1backed Yes | 3c | 842$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 2c | 824.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc2…f8aabacked Yes | 3c | 723.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 2c | 712.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25d7…895dbacked Yes | 2c | 699.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc802…3570backed Yes | 16c | 624.88$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.97 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…61f2backed Yes | 3c | 596.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa284…fbbabacked Yes | 4c | 570.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0884…56cebacked Yes | 2c | 520.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf60a…b45ebacked Yes | 2c | 501.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bc…8ce0backed Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 494.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 7c | 479.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c79…14e4backed Yes | 6c | 425.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06a…1dd1backed Yes | 12c | 412.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6393…0614backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a9…d4f7backed Yes | 13c | 353$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes | 3c | 339.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 15c | 300.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 76c | 283.14$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.03 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…00d6backed Yes | 13c | 276$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…bcf0backed Yes | 11c | 275.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed Yes | 13c | 272$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c2e0backed Yes | 8c | 264$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 7c | 256.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b79…360fbacked Yes | 17c | 235$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf716…05c7backed Yes | 9c | 213.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked Yes | 13c | 206$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 204.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe132…ca8dbacked Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 12c | 198.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 13c | 191.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f404backed Yes | 14c | 187$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes | 14c | 182$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea45…e748backed Yes | 16c | 172$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes | 8c | 139.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 9cpaid | +241.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f2…96cfbacked Yes | 10c | 136.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 131.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked Yes | 10c | 104$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 103$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…333fbacked Yes | 13c | 102$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4984…69d2backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67f1…3e4fbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 23c | 69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -5.7wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xba29…363bbacked No | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89df…f8d0backed Yes | 15c | 66.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes | 49c | 65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6cfebacked Yes | 16c | 63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +22.0wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +88%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 26c | 51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c51…ec8dbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sentimental Value win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Blue Moon win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Marty Supreme win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Rental Family win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will The Secret Agent win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Weapons win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.