TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$114,514

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,514 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c6,743$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.61983.1%3 W · 95 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-89%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes1c3,641$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.41387.9%3 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29ad…7dd1backed Yes1c3,351$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65d6…b8fabacked Yes1c2,831$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-63.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes1c2,554$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.886520%13 W · 52 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-64.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes1c2,541$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.12410%0 W · 41 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c6d…37debacked Yes1c2,498$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59d2…bbe7backed Yes1c2,420$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes1c2,367$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205219.2%10 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82d1…b4a2backed Yes1c2,256$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x115a…e4a6backed Yes1c2,248$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.02263.8%1 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-85.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes1c2,222$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.551216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42fe…d6f4backed Yes1c2,189$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c2,156$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.721455.5%8 W · 137 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-67.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5078…992cbacked Yes1c2,024$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d11…855bbacked Yes1c1,796$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-84.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0cd…4e54backed Yes4c1,629$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes2c1,468$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.96567.1%4 W · 52 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-79.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b89…f3a9backed Yes1c1,450$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes4c1,291$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2717821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc77…ace0backed Yes2c1,210$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes13c1,209$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.0313040%52 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c1,199$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.671,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4628…ee62backed No77c1,049$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.821233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ba…5454backed Yes2c992.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab1f…8422backed Yes2c967.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4870%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x147d…fcc9backed Yes2c924.03$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.93100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes3c854.46$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.641549.7%15 W · 139 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0a8…0c57backed Yes1c742.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.471040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+48%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes14c653.13$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1748236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes2c634.18$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.331114.5%5 W · 106 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3753…89f5backed Yes3c573.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x895d…3778backed Yes15c534.12$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.165523.6%13 W · 42 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick13cpaid+138.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes24c461$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.342157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb05b…c7d8backed Yes3c435.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fe6…d8e3backed Yes24c413$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.061546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c401.46$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5667232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4924…f404backed Yes4c336$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.782045%9 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes4c328.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7323741.4%98 W · 139 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9774…6d3cbacked Yes23c290$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.991241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x282e…3eaabacked Yes5c289$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.29757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+53.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc123…115cbacked Yes23c287$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.442653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes11c273.74$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0326641.7%111 W · 155 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…7523backed Yes5c253$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.643141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x787a…a54dbacked Yes21c241.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.591915.8%3 W · 16 L-5.3wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-75.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed No77c241$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.954542.2%19 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31a8…1f07backed No77c213$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.362941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3e2…bb87backed Yes20c199.08$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.23141.9%13 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x82aa…2393backed Yes15c196$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.63751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe53d…8ab8backed Yes22c166$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.022850%14 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b47…9930backed No78c166$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.022665.4%17 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.21per pick44cpaid+44.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4a40…904bbacked Yes32c161$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.681457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb88…6b99backed Yes23c152$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.573327.3%9 W · 24 L-5.4wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-36.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x43a9…faebbacked No80c145.04$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.081172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick72cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bcd…e98bbacked Yes20c128$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.982737%10 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2604…13ccbacked No80c128$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.983452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d82…3d02backed Yes24c119$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.971450%7 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5bc…2ad5backed No77c115$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.56862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5243…a73cbacked Yes12c112$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.952850%14 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes22c110$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.986729.9%20 W · 47 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-44%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x358d…7602backed No77c110$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.852245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-32.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf49…6cfebacked No77c106$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.962356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10d8…9f12backed Yes23c106$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.962638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61a8…f658backed No68c103$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.062045%9 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f91…d531backed No73c103$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.841258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x253f…e642backed Yes23c98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.832437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x036f…31a9backed Yes23c97$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.62433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-40.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5056…f991backed No68c93$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.851643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x708a…68b9backed Yes15c91$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.742231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf42b…7577backed No68c90$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.892343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d5f6backed No77c84$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.572653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes17c79.43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.339244.6%41 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54af…415ebacked No77c74$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.321353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2f…a8aabacked Yes23c71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.051741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b02…a23bbacked No77c71$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.051973.7%14 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+27.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e17…c6b5backed No78c63$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.052147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e47…db27backed Yes22c53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.822040%8 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-35.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8151…3421backed No77c46$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.493063.3%19 W · 11 L+4.8wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes29c42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1248414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf75c…838dbacked No77c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.99837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No75c19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6619240.6%78 W · 114 L-20.3wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-36.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.