AI · resolved market
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x950020cb3141ef2afffa49829f23b3e0dd5780a496c7d5e34dcb57a3928b735a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 55c | 3,905$2,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,767.88 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…8be1backed Yes | 67c | 2,584$1,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,730.21 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 35c | 2,296$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.58 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0446…cc69backed Yes | 1c | 1,790$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed Yes | 39c | 1,619$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.87 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2103…e296backed Yes | 36c | 1,593$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a41…1160backed No | 66c | 1,477$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked Yes | 37c | 1,474$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.34 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed Yes | 46c | 1,329$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.55 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc35e…d368backed Yes | 47c | 1,281$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 40c | 1,257$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.8 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked No | 75c | 1,160$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +46%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 51c | 1,154$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.33 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05f2…95debacked Yes | 30c | 1,151$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.3 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87e7…d0b5backed Yes | 13c | 1,142$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.28 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked Yes | 41c | 1,107$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.87 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3acc…973dbacked Yes | 36c | 1,095$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…af94backed Yes | 62c | 1,086$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.32 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +59%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed Yes | 37c | 1,080$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…b418backed No | 59c | 1,045$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 63c | 1,038$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.2 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed No | 71c | 1,017$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.12 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 68c | 1,016$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.29 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked Yes | 62c | 969$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.78 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6177…c22abacked Yes | 30c | 950$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2552…73d2backed Yes | 28c | 950$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked No | 38c | 928$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.36 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…1690backed Yes | 36c | 927$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked No | 64c | 922$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.6 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bc…43e9backed Yes | 36c | 897$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4744…e229backed Yes | 42c | 893$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.06 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ee…9238backed No | 53c | 891$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.77 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed No | 58c | 841$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.22 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f8…6c22backed Yes | 42c | 833$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.92 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa05b…8df1backed No | 70c | 795$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabeb…7a78backed No | 64c | 772$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.92 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…87bfbacked Yes | 30c | 760$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked No | 60c | 737$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.2 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf100…2fcabacked No | 64c | 735$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +79%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed No | 64c | 734$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.24 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…e59abacked No | 64c | 722$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.92 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked No | 64c | 709$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.24 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes | 32c | 695$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.4 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 20c | 690.72$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.78 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf7…4307backed Yes | 34c | 656.89$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 3c | 638.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed No | 60c | 632$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.8 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…bd74backed No | 60c | 625$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked Yes | 30c | 597$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.1 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…1796backed No | 70c | 597$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.1 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked No | 38c | 595$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.9 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff0c…36eebacked No | 64c | 561$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d2…39f0backed No | 61c | 560$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…c888backed No | 63c | 554$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.98 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…fb12backed No | 63c | 545.25$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…f8fbbacked Yes | 25c | 541$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…a64bbacked No | 64c | 536$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed Yes | 25c | 531$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.75 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed No | 45c | 521$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.55 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56bb…2949backed No | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…e61bbacked No | 62c | 498$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.24 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…7fd9backed Yes | 38c | 498$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.24 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.9wins | -0.44per pick | 55cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x58fe…a8c5backed No | 68c | 496$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.72 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.37per pick | 44cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3359…2273backed No | 64c | 496$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c9…af45backed No | 59c | 482$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.62 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5d…5f6abacked No | 59c | 472$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 18c | 462$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.84 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed No | 70c | 432$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc7…1a35backed No | 58c | 422$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +127.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked Yes | 30c | 418$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…9e42backed Yes | 42c | 415$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.3 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 30c | 414$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.2 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…9ae0backed No | 69c | 408$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.48 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +50%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed Yes | 31c | 408$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.48 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked Yes | 42c | 406$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.52 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed Yes | 30c | 398$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.4 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6f…469fbacked No | 38c | 374$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87fd…66bcbacked No | 64c | 367$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…15ddbacked Yes | 62c | 365$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 46c | 343.77$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.91 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbec…8dccbacked Yes | 32c | 342$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.44 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 43c | 322.47$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.71 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b1…4336backed Yes | 22c | 318$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…1ccbbacked No | 78c | 318$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…be04backed No | 63c | 317$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.29 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…4bffbacked Yes | 41c | 309$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.69 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked Yes | 41c | 295$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.95 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes | 37c | 291$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.67 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed No | 68c | 289$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.48 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 44c | 288.69$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.17 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1832…af9ebacked Yes | 30c | 275$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -62%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…758bbacked No | 70c | 275$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 54c | 267.89$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.23 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…d42ebacked No | 46c | 263$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.02 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 40c | 258.11$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.05 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 32c | 256$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.26 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 51c | 255.05$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.58 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…cae1backed No | 63c | 253$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.61 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd4…5c6abacked Yes | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde1c…fb66backed No | 65c | 247.75$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?this page
- Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes won
- Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes won
- Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No won
- Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.