AI · resolved market
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x257d531f3a6b96008d0a58a0169eed8af4faaddae8f7a38961739fc8ee7a7729
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 3,005$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 2,444$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd36c…6b38backed No | 38c | 1,882$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.49 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +598.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8f…1cb8backed No | 3c | 1,681$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed No | 1c | 1,603$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80d…b42bbacked No | 39c | 1,468$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b1…0005backed No | 43c | 1,173$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 16c | 985$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.18 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…9ca7backed No | 41c | 968$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.88 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ba…e6cebacked Yes | 61c | 863$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.57 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 38cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…275ebacked No | 16c | 832$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.12 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed No | 41c | 831$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.71 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +31%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed No | 18c | 777$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.86 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…6487backed No | 16c | 749$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb890…a592backed No | 17c | 742$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed No | 16c | 737$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.92 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…a8adbacked No | 7c | 699.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6813…39e6backed No | 31c | 675$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…44a9backed Yes | 57c | 669$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed Yes | 59c | 625$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.25 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…db83backed Yes | 69c | 616$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.96 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 2c | 600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 56c | 599$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.64 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…ed99backed No | 18c | 572$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…a3e1backed No | 33c | 553$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.49 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -46%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x673d…e929backed Yes | 61c | 522$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.58 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 2c | 505.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed Yes | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ef…534fbacked Yes | 70c | 500$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.6wins | +0.33per pick | 39cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked No | 16c | 489$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.24 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…bd74backed No | 16c | 488$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.08 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…ccd9backed Yes | 67c | 487.04$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.72 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked No | 14c | 472$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked No | 33c | 465$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.45 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3684…9669backed Yes | 67c | 465$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.45 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 2c | 418.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…1c04backed No | 18c | 388$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed No | 3c | 382$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 5c | 358.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed No | 16c | 344$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b2…0eb2backed No | 16c | 334$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb28…74f4backed Yes | 59c | 326$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.66 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked No | 16c | 319$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9f70backed Yes | 67c | 295$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.35 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +5.5wins | +0.29per pick | 40cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked Yes | 59c | 290$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed No | 16c | 264$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -5.8wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…395ebacked No | 18c | 258$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabeb…7a78backed Yes | 67c | 258$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70e7…4a70backed No | 16c | 252$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…34e0backed Yes | 57c | 241$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.63 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b2…9d96backed No | 17c | 239$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed No | 16c | 209$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked Yes | 65c | 209$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.15 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…b4eebacked No | 35c | 209$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.15 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…befbbacked Yes | 49c | 205.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…f02dbacked No | 16c | 202$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 7c | 166.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed No | 16c | 166$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 18c | 162.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked No | 18c | 160$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4461…5999backed Yes | 66c | 151.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x610f…1edabacked No | 35c | 146$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 65c | 146$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14d4…cc6fbacked Yes | 59c | 142$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 38c | 116.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7769…9991backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…ebc2backed No | 16c | 98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 16c | 93.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…bd84backed No | 41c | 84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed Yes | 61c | 83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…4146backed No | 16c | 81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed No | 16c | 69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes | 69c | 59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 51c | 50.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae9c…ce57backed Yes | 70c | 42.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…88d7backed Yes | 73c | 27.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?this page
- Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes won
- Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No won
- Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No won
- Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.